Saturday 22 January 2022

Daily Digest

Daily Digest

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Meat Loaf on a Weber, and Vice Versa

Posted: 21 Jan 2022 08:57 PM PST

(Steven Hayward)

I’m not a fan of meat loaf—the baked dish—or Meat Loaf, the musician who passed away today. Still, I am always sorry to hear of the passing of any artist who attracted a mass following.

I am, however, a huge fan of Weber grills, and regard the Weber kettle one of the great products of modern science, worthy of the Nobel Prize in physics. The green egg and other designs are very worthy, but for the coals, it’s Weber forever.

So I’m a little sorry to see Weber decide they need to join the apology brigade for what is at most only a mildly embarrassing coincidence that most people would never have noticed:

How should the U.S. respond to a Russian attack on Ukraine?

Posted: 21 Jan 2022 07:37 PM PST

(Paul Mirengoff)

I don’t know anyone who believes the U.S. should respond with American boots on the ground. I know few people who believe the U.S should do nothing.

The range of acceptable options lies somewhere between imposing more sanctions on Russia, but going no further, and providing some form of military assistance short of ground troops.

As to sanctions, there’s a debate about how much damage even stringent ones would impose on Russia. There’s also the question, raised by Joe Biden himself during his most recent press conference, of the extent to which Europe would go along with stringent sanctions.

Based on what Biden said, it’s fair to infer that Europe would balk at severe sanctions. If so, it’s fair to infer that a sanctions regime wouldn’t impose the kind of damage on Russia that would cause it pull out of Ukraine or deter it from such adventurism. Indeed, I question whether any sanctions regime could induce Putin to curb his territorial ambitions.

In sum, sanctions are a weak response.

What other options, short of ground troops are there? Michael Vickers, a Defense Department official during the Obama years, lays them out in this article. He raises the possibility of deploying U.S. air power against Russia. He does so in the context of deterring Putin from moving against Ukraine, but for air power to be a credible deterrent, we must be prepared to use it in case Putin is not deterred.

Even just the use of our air power would put Americans in harms way and put America at war with Russia. I don’t see a prudent administration doing this.

Vickers suggests the following course of action, on top of sanctions, if Russia attacks Ukraine:

The United States should also support Ukrainian resistance to Russian occupation and a Russia-installed government with lethal means, to include advanced anti-armor and anti-air weapons. We drove the Russians out of Afghanistan during the 1980s using similar means, and we can drive them out of Ukraine should they invade and occupy the country.

We should also support the resistance to Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, which will significantly expand Putin's territorial control problem and increase the cost of his invasion. As part of this strategy, Poland should also open its borders to Belarusian refugees. Finally, we should employ cyber and other covert means to undermine Putin's rule in Russia. It's past time to give Putin a taste of his own medicine.

I don’t know whether Vickers is correct in his assessment that we could drive the Russians out of Ukraine through the same methods we used to help the Afghans drive out the Russians in the 1980s. But there’s no doubt that Putin doesn’t want another Afghanistan or anything like it. Nor do the Russian people. Were Russia to become bogged down in Ukraine and incur a steady loss of Russian life there, Putin’s grip on power might well slip.

Therefore, we should make it clear to Putin, if we haven’t already, that we will support Ukrainian resistance to Russia. And we should make good on that threat if there is an invasion/occupation.

Some might argue that this response isn’t warranted because Ukraine’s fate has no bearing on U.S. interests. I consider this argument frivolous in the context of a debate over whether to provide the kind of assistance described above. It’s clear to me that America has enough of a stake in opposing Russia to justify providing aid, as opposed to troops, to support Ukraine.

Nonetheless, before the U.S. comes to Ukraine’s aid against a Russian attack, that U.S. interest will have to be spelled out, not just asserted.

Let’s Declare Victory and Go Home

Posted: 21 Jan 2022 06:18 PM PST

(John Hinderaker)

In 1966, Vermont Senator George Aiken, addressing the Vietnam War, said that it was time to declare victory and go home. As usual with such quotes, the reality is perhaps more complicated. But there is a reason why Aiken’s supposed quote has gone down in history. If he didn’t say it, he should have.

In my opinion, we are at an analogous point in the covid epidemic. The time has come to stop vowing to crush covid, or to achieve the impossible goal of preventing a virus from spreading. It is time to declare victory over covid–or a truce, anyway–and go home. The U.K. is now following that path, along with other European countries.

Kevin Roche expresses similar thoughts:

The level of total immunity in Minnesota and the country is very, very high right now. A huge percent of the population is vaccinated or has been infected or both. I would guess there cannot be more than 10% to 15% of the population that has no immune response to CV-19, based on vax stats and seroprevalence surveys and estimates of detected and undetected infection ratios. This Omicron wave has pumped numbers up to a very high level. Remember when the "experts" told us that if we got to 70% or 80% infection the epidemic would be over? I was astounded at those pronouncements because of the misunderstanding of adaptive immunity they evinced, coupled with the widespread and increasing use of oversensitive PCR and antigen tests.

Pretty much everyone else got that wrong, too.

So why isn't it over despite such high levels of total immunity? Because, for the 100th time, adaptive immunity does not and cannot stop exposure. If people are exposed and there is constant testing, you will find "infections", most of which have no clinical meaning. Because the virus has a million reservoirs and a far greater ability to survive and travel in the air than we have understood or accepted. Because population immunity does not mean there is no virus; it means that transmission and infections are very low and impose a low morbidity burden. How do the experts not know this, or if they do, how can they be so bad at communicating and even worse at designing policies that take these basic facts into account.

If we only counted as "cases" those infections that had symptoms requiring, requiring, medical care, and we only counted as CV-19 hospitalizations those in which the primary reason for admission was CV-19 and the primary treatment was for CV-19, and we only count as CV-19 deaths those in which the actual cause of death was CV-19 disease; the epidemic is over now. On those more rational parameters, what we have now is a typical or less than typical flu season, and that is how we count flu events.

“The epidemic is over now.” It is time to declare victory and go home. The damage we have done to our children in our futile attempt to “stop the virus” is a crime. We will be living with the consequences for many years to come. Meanwhile, the best thing we can do, as George Aiken may have said many years ago, is declare victory and go home. Let us at least stop inflicting further devastation on the next generation.

Court Enjoins Biden’s Federal Employee Mandate

Posted: 21 Jan 2022 04:41 PM PST

(John Hinderaker)

President Biden issued four orders purporting to require vaccinations in various populations. Two of those mandates have been addressed by the Supreme Court. The other two were challenged in a case brought in Texas by a group called Feds for Medical Freedom. Earlier today, U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown issued an order enjoining the federal government from enforcing Biden’s mandate that all federal employees be vaccinated, or lose their jobs.

Judge Brown’s order is here. I have not studied these issues exhaustively, but from a quick read it seems persuasive. Judge Brown relied in part on the Supreme Court decision that barred implementation of an OSHA rule that would have required all employers of more than 100 people to force their employees to be vaccinated, or else fire them.

This is the key section of the court’s opinion:

The final statutory authority on which the government relies is § 7301, which provides in its entirety: "The President may prescribe regulations for the conduct of employees in the executive branch." 5 U.S.C. § 7301. According to the government, "the act of becoming vaccinated" is "plainly 'conduct'" within the meaning of the statute. Dkt. 21 at 27.

But the plaintiffs argue that rather than regulate "conduct," the federal-worker mandate compels employees to assume a vaccinated "status," and "one that is untethered to job requirements, no less." Dkt. 3 at 12. Moreover, the plaintiffs contend, even if becoming vaccinated is "conduct," it is not "workplace conduct," which is all that § 7301 reasonably authorizes the President to regulate. Dkt. 23 at 12.

Assuming that getting vaccinated is indeed "conduct," the court agrees with the plaintiffs that under § 7301, it must be workplace conduct before the President may regulate it. Any broader reading would allow the President to prescribe, or proscribe, certain private behaviors by civilian federal workers outside the context of their employment. Neither the plain language of § 7301 nor any traditional notion of personal liberty would tolerate such a sweeping grant of power.

So, is submitting to a COVID-19 vaccine, particularly when required as a condition of one's employment, workplace conduct? The answer to this question became a lot clearer after the Supreme Court's ruling in NFIB earlier this month. There, the Court held that the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, 29 U.S.C. § 15 et seq., allows OSHA "to set workplace safety standards," but "not broad public health measures." NFIB, 595 U.S. ___ slip op. at 6. Similarly, as noted above, § 7301 authorizes the President to regulate the workplace conduct of executive-branch employees, but not their conduct in general. See 5 U.S.C. § 7301. And in NFIB, the Supreme Court specifically held that COVID-19 is not a workplace risk, but rather a "universal risk" that is "no different from the day-to-day dangers that all face from crime, air pollution, or any number of communicable diseases." NFIB, 595 U.S. ___ slip op. at 6. Accordingly, the Court held, requiring employees to get vaccinated against COVID-19 is outside OSHA's ambit. Id. Applying that same logic to the President's authority under § 7301 means he cannot require civilian federal employees to submit to the vaccine as a condition of employment.

That reasoning appears sound to me. So one more attempt by the Biden administration to act unlawfully, to jam extreme measures down the throats of Americans, has fallen short. Joe Biden is compiling a record of failure that is truly impressive.

Susan Vass: Remembering Louie Anderson

Posted: 21 Jan 2022 02:49 PM PST

(Scott Johnson)

When I read the sad news that St. Paul native Louie Anderson died today at the age of 68, I asked our own Susan Vass (a/k/a Ammo Grrlll) if she could provide a personal remembrance. Susan writes:

My heart is heavy today. My husband Joe and I were just recovering from learning that Oregon Muse, a co-blogger on Ace of Spades, had died of COVID. We did not know him personally, but he did the Book Thread and was always very kind to promote our various books. It seemed that he had recovered and then, suddenly, he was gone.

Then just yesterday I learned that Louie Anderson was in hospital being treated for a blood cancer and today he is gone.

Louie, in a very real sense, was responsible for my being, first a comedian, and then a columnist, which flowed from being a comedian.

Back in the early ’80s, Louie was hitting his stride in Minnesota comedy. He had had a very good set on Johnny Carson (video below) and was preparing to go to Los Angeles to see if he could take it to the next level. To raise money for the move, he had at least a dozen "Last Chances to See Louie" weekends at several different comedy clubs in the Twin Cities. I went to the one at the Comedy Gallery and laughed so hard that the proprietor had to get me a paper bag to breathe into because I was hyperventilating!

When I got home that night, I could not even sleep. I came up with what I thought were several pretty funny lines for Louie. I knew his home base was the Dudley Riggs Theatre on Seven Corners and I went down there and "stalked" him. He graciously took my little handwritten notes and the next night when I saw him, he said, "This is pretty funny stuff, but it isn't my 'voice.’ You should do it yourself."

Oh, my. That had never occurred to me before. I thought of myself as a writer, not a performer. I practiced on my late-shift job for a couple of months and went up on the Open Stage one night for the longest five minutes of my life and it went quite well. Dudley Riggs, himself, the proprietor of that club, was in the house and told me not to do any other clubs and he would hire me! Yikes!

Louie was one of 11 children in a very poor home on the East Side of St. Paul. They actually lived in government welfare housing. He was also a large and unathletic kid. He probably honed his comedy skills as a survival tool. When he first hit it big, and would come back from L.A., he had kind of "gone Hollywood,” telling us young comics that in L.A. if you were a star you should "never open a door for yourself and never carry anything." But, eventually, he got over that.

The last time I saw him was perhaps 10 years ago when I opened for him at the Mayo Clinic's shindig for employees with over 25 years of service. Again, I gave him a piece of material. He tried it out that night and it went well. We both had very good sets and went out for dinner afterwards with the agent on the job. I was impressed with how much Louie was loved by all who approached him. He patiently posed for pictures with all and sundry, signed autographs and chatted with whoever approached him. He had gotten over his "Hollywood" period and could not have been sweeter either to me or his audience.

He was a rare talent, not just as a brilliant writer, but his real forte was in what comics call "crowd rap" – just chatting with the audience and coming up with jokes on the spot. I never saw anyone who was better at it. He had a Minnesota Everyman quality that made people love him almost instantly. He worked 100 percent clean and was particularly hilarious channeling his mother's voice. May he Rest In Peace. Gone way too young and will be much missed.

PS: The five-minute video below perfectly illustrates Susan’s last point about Louie coming up with jokes on the spot.

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