| Can you ace the postseason without your ace? |
| True or false: The Rays miss Wander Franco. Silly question, right? Franco, who has been out of the lineup for more than a week while Dominican Republic authorities and MLB officials investigate allegations of inappropriate behavior with minors, has been one of the most valuable players in baseball. Shortstop is a premium position, Franco has provided Gold Glove-caliber defense and is hitting about 25% above league average. His 5.5 WAR trails only Shohei Ohtani in the American League. True or false: The Rays miss Shane McClanahan more than Franco. Tougher question, isn’t it? McClanahan, who is scheduled for Tommy John surgery this week, has not been as dominant as he was in 2022. His ERA has gone from 2.54 last season to 3.29 in 2023, and his strikeouts per nine innings dropped from 10.5 to 9.5. And yet, I would argue McClanahan’s absence in the postseason will hurt the Rays far more than if Franco is still unavailable in October. And, make no mistake, this argument is all about the postseason. As much as the Rays have struggled to find their groove in the summer months, they’re still one of the better teams in the AL and almost certainly will extend their season. Baseball Prospectus has their postseason chances at 95.1%, and Fangraphs has them at 96.9%. So if Franco is lost for any extended period — and it’s expected his stay on the restricted list will be extended today or, more likely, MLB will place him on the administrative list — the Rays will have a drop-off with either Osleivis Basabe or Taylor Walls at shortstop. But the main reason the Rays looked like a World Series contender earlier this season is because their collection of starters seemed deep and unstoppable. Turns out, they were deep, but unstoppable? The ulnar collateral ligament could eventually be the epitaph to the season. First Jeffrey Springs, then Drew Rasmussen and now McClanahan have all been taken out of the picture because of Tommy John or a similar elbow-related surgery. Losing one starter could be absorbed. Losing two was fixed by the acquisition of Aaron Civale. Losing three, including their ace, may eventually prove to be fatal. Here’s a clue to McClanahan’s importance as a stopper in the rotation: On June 21, the Rays were 52-25 and had won 13 of McClanahan’s 15 starts. The next day, which coincidentally was the start of Franco’s two-game benching via manager Kevin Cash, McClanahan left the mound in the fourth inning with his velocity dropping and his back hurting. Since that day, the Rays have gone 23-26 and won just two of McClanahan’s six starts. He got past the fifth inning in only one of those appearances, as it became clearer that McClanahan was struggling with an issue beyond a balky back. Tyler Glasnow has the talent to be a No. 1 starter in the postseason, but consistency has been an issue. And, eventually, workload may also be a factor, too, as he eclipses 100 innings for the first time in five years. Basically, McClanahan’s injury is going to push everyone else into more challenging roles. Glasnow will need to be a No.1, Zach Eflin goes from a strong complementary piece to a No. 2, Civale fits in at No. 3, but now either Zack Littell or Taj Bradley will be penciled into the postseason rotation instead of working out of the bullpen. So how important is a No. 1 starter going into October? When the Rays win the first game of a playoff series, they have gone on to win the series 71.4% of the time (including one-game playoffs). When they lose the first game of a postseason series, they’ve gone on to win the series 25% of the time. |
| He ain't perfect, but Siri has done some damage |
| • Jose Siri has one of the more unique stat lines you’ll ever see. He strikes out a ton, rarely draws walks and is still an above-average hitter by most standards. Siri’s on-base percentage is a paltry .261, and yet his OPS is .777. In the last 100 years, the only player with an on-base percentage that low and an OPS that high, with at least 200 at-bats, was Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce in 2019. The obvious explanation is Siri has nearly as many home runs (24) as singles (27). So the next time you’re inclined to complain about Siri chasing pitches out of the zone, just remember the Rays are still getting league-average quality out of the centerfield position. • The Rays got home runs from Christian Bethancourt and Rene Pinto in the past week. I suppose that’s a good sign, but it also reminds us just how bad Rays catchers have been with a bat in their hands this season. Tampa Bay’s catchers have a combined .645 OPS. Compare that to Baltimore (.767) or Texas (.774) or even Minnesota (.713), and you can see what a drag catching has been on the Rays' offense. • It looks like the Rays made the right move, at least in the short term, when they cut Yonny Chirinos loose last month. Since being claimed on waivers by the Braves, Chirinos has a 9.27 ERA in five starts and has lasted only 22-1/3 innings. By contrast, Zack Littell has a 2.78 ERA and has thrown 22-2/3 innings in four starts since claiming a spot in the rotation a week after Chirinos departed. • He doesn’t profile as a typical power hitter, but Yandy Diaz still punishes the ball as well as anyone in baseball. Diaz’s average exit velocity of 93.8 mph puts him in the 98th percentile among qualified hitters in MLB. The only batters ahead of him (Matt Olson, Corey Seager, Ronald Acuna, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge) are a Who’s Who list of MVP candidates. |
| — John Romano, sports columnist |
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