| The clock is ticking and Rays fans are sweating |
| The trade deadline is a little more than 24 hours away and, thus far, the Rays have been silent. No starters, no relievers, no hitters. This isn’t necessarily bad news, although it’s intriguing considering Tampa Bay’s interest in pitching and the number of deals that have already been made around Major League Baseball this month. Max Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Jordan Montgomery have all been dealt. So have a handful of relievers, including Aroldis Chapman and David Robertson. These were all veteran pitchers on underperforming teams and their availability in the marketplace was widely expected. And when you take a step back, it kind of makes sense that Tampa Bay was not involved. The Rays never chase headlines. They go after players who fit their roster as opposed to names that create a buzz on talk radio. So if the Rays do make a deal by 6 p.m. on Tuesday, it could very well be a pitcher who wasn’t prominent in a lot of trade rumors. The point is not to overreact on Aug. 1 because the biggest names don’t always have the biggest impact. You need only revisit the 2022 trade deadline to understand that. Go back and read ESPN, the Ringer, Bleacher Report, the Athletic, Sports Illustrated and other websites on Aug. 2 of last year and you’ll see that the Padres, Yankees and Twins were considered big winners at the trade deadline. And yet, all three of those teams had worse records after the deadline than before it. The Twins universally were lauded for landing All-Star closer Jorge Lopez and mid-rotation starter Tyler Mahle. Lopez had a 1.68 ERA with an 82.6 save percentage in the first half of the season in Baltimore, but stumbled home with a 4.37 ERA and a 66.7 save percentage in Minnesota. Mahle made four starts for his new team before being shut down with a shoulder injury. The Twins went 24-36 after the deadline and lost the division to the Guardians, who did virtually nothing at the deadline. The Yankees got Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Andrew Benintendi and Harrison Bader at the deadline and promptly went 29-29 to finish the season and were swept in the ALCS by the Astros. The Padres mortgaged a chunk of their farm system to get Juan Soto and Josh Hader but couldn’t catch the Dodgers in the West and lost the NLCS in five games to the Phillies. If you want to go back an extra year, Nelson Cruz was the biggest name the Rays had ever acquired at the deadline and he was virtually a ghost during his short stay in Tampa Bay. Yes, the deadline can be critical for a team. Rick Sutcliffe, CC Sabbathia, Randy Johnson and Scherzer all pitched like Cy Young candidates after they were acquired at the deadline in years past. And I do think the Rays need to bring in more pitching. I’ve been saying that since the middle of May. But instantaneously judging a trade can be a risky endeavor. Bemoaning the lack of a deal before the deadline ends is even worse. I’d be surprised and disappointed if the Rays take the field against the Yankees on Tuesday night without making some effort to improve their chances in October, but this front office has a pretty good track record when it comes to bringing in talent from other organizations. Maybe they’ve got interest in Jack Flaherty in St. Louis. Maybe they fly under the radar with Paul Blackburn in Oakland, who doesn’t have flashy stats but would still have two more years of control. Maybe, after his strong outing on Sunday in Houston, they decide Zack Littell is as good as anyone they could acquire. As Tom Petty said, the waiting is the hardest part. |
| Hey, I remember that guy! |
| • A week ago, I was wondering about Brandon Lowe’s future considering his poor performance since injuring his back in 2022. Now, I’m wondering about my own acumen. Since the last Rays newsletter went out, Lowe is hitting .474 with a .524 on-base percentage and a ridiculous 1.471 OPS. In a lot of ways, this is exactly who Lowe has been his entire career. He is a streaky hitter who can look lost at the plate for months at a time but is also capable of carrying the Rays when he is locked in. • Today, it is just an oddity. A quirk. Shane McClanahan, for the second season in a row, is not having as much success in July as he did in the season’s first three months. Maybe he’s a little tired, or maybe it’s a complete coincidence. But through his first 18 starts in 2022 and 2023, McClanahan had an astounding 21-4 record with a 2.12 ERA. Beginning with his 19th start in each season, he is 2-5 with a 4.74 ERA. That’s a pretty small sample size and there’s plenty of time for McClanahan to regroup in 2023. But if that trend continues into August and September, the Rays could be in trouble. • There’s been a lot of chatter about Josh Lowe’s struggles against high velocity and the relative dip his numbers have taken in recent weeks, but no one has been better at delivering the big hit for the Rays this season. Lowe is hitting .353 with a .954 OPS with runners in scoring position, and delivered again on Sunday with a two-out, bases-loaded double against the Astros. His numbers are 40% higher with runners in scoring position, as opposed to Luke Raley and Wander Franco, who are both roughly 40% lower. • Good news that Zach Eflin expects to make his start against the Yankees this week after tweaking his left knee in his last outing. Eflin, who was forced to pitch out of the bullpen at the end of last season in Philadelphia because of knee problems, has already thrown 116 innings this season, which is his most since 2019. |
| — John Romano, sports columnist |
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