| Summer is here and the Rays are already hot |
| Memorial Day has come and gone, and that means no more apologizing for Tampa Bay’s wicked hot start. And you know exactly what I’m talking about. When the Rays jumped out to a 13-0 record, critics pointed out they had faced less-than-impressive competition. And when they finished April with a 23-6 tally, there were some who suggested it was a month-long aberration. But the season is now one-third completed, and the Rays have played more games against teams with winning records than clubs below .500. Teams such as the Rangers and Dodgers have gone on hot streaks of their own and, still, the Rays have the best winning percentage in baseball. They followed up their 23-6 April with a solid 16-11 mark so far in May. They have a winning record on the road and at home, against left-handers and right-handers, versus the American League and the National League. They are as well-rounded as any team in baseball. All of which means … the next few months will be nerve-wracking. That’s just how it works in baseball. The closer you get to the prize, the more intense the pressure gets. You start obsessing over every possible roadblock and pitfall. And the Rays certainly have a few in their way. The bullpen has holes: The simple truth is they do not have enough high-leverage guys they trust. They already have used 28 pitchers this season and only the dreadful Athletics have used more. The combination of injuries and ineffectiveness have caused manager Kevin Cash to use the phrase “piecing it together” on a near-daily basis. Now, it’s possible the pieces are already there. Colin Poche was better in May than he was in April and Jason Adam may be on the way to figuring out how to get back to last year’s domination. When healthy, Pete Fairbanks has been mostly good, and Shawn Armstrong and Andrew Kittredge will become available sometime this summer. But there’s really not a sure thing in the bunch. The AL East is ridiculous: The Cubs got off to a 39-16 start in 2016 and had a 9.5-game lead on second-place Pittsburgh. The Astros were 39-16 in 2017 and had a 12.5-game lead on second-place Anaheim. At 39-16, the Rays have a 10-game lead on last-place Toronto. That’s right, the AL East is so bunched-up with quality teams the Rays have put very little distance between themselves and all four of their rivals in the division. With a 34-20 record, Baltimore is four games behind Tampa Bay, but would be leading four other divisions. Heck, even fourth-place Boston would be on top in both the AL and NL Central divisions. The bottom line is the Rays are not going to cruise to a division title. When you’re worried about your strength: The Rays have great starting pitching. Maybe even dominant starting pitching. Think of it this way: Shane McClanahan is 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA, and he has a higher WHIP (baserunners per inning) than Zach Eflin, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. So, yeah, that’s a talented crew. But, because of injury and inning concerns, it’s still a wobbly rotation. Springs is already lost for the season, and Rasmussen has been shut down for two months. Tyler Glasnow is as talented as any pitcher in the game, but he’s never made more than 14 starts in a season. Eflin averaged about 90 innings the past two years because of injuries. And Bradley, as impressive as he’s been as a 22-year-old rookie, is not accustomed to pitching in September and October. The potential is there for greatness, or heartache. |
| Here's what a good eye (and big muscles) gets you |
| • He still has a long way to go, but Yandy Diaz is in the conversation for the best offensive season in Rays history. His batting average (.320) is currently tied for the best in Rays history, his on-base percentage (.420) would be a new team record, his slugging percentage (.598) is second and his OPS (1.018) is second. Carlos Pena’s 46-home run season combined with a .411 on-base percentage in 2007 has been the standard, but Diaz is not far off. • Old baseball people will tell you not to pay too much attention to the standings until Memorial Day. And while the end of May might be a helpful signpost, it’s not exactly a perfect indicator of what’s to come. Of the last 10 full seasons (excluding the 2020 COVID year), exactly half the teams (30 of 60) that were leading the division on Memorial Day went on to win the crown. The Rays have fared slightly better. They’ve been in the lead five times on Memorial Day, and finished first in three of those seasons. Can you tell me the two seasons they fell short? (Answer below.) • It's not unheard of, but it is pretty uncommon to see a player the size of Luke Raley (6-4, 235 pounds) routinely stealing bases. Raley is on pace to steal 20-21 bases, which would be the most for a player that size since Gregory Polanco in 2015. Raley is self-deprecating about how awkward he can look in the field, but his speed and defense were part of the equation when the Rays acquired him from the Dodgers last spring. • Shawn Armstrong has looked good in his minor-league rehab assignment (two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in seven innings) but Luis Patino continues to flounder. Since being moved to the bullpen, Patino has given up 11 runs in 7.2 innings. Even if you take out one horrific outing (2/3 of an inning with seven runs), he’s allowed 11 baserunners with only one strikeout in the other seven innings. If Patino could pitch to his ability, it could go a long way toward rescuing Tampa Bay’s bullpen. • Trivia answer: The Rays were tied for first place on Memorial Day in 2012 and 2015 and ended up in third and fourth place. |
| — John Romano, sports columnist |
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