| Going into the ninth inning of Sunday’s game, I was preparing to make the case that this was the most fun month of baseball we had ever seen. Truly, it was everything you could have ever asked for out of a hometown team. The Rays were hitting home runs at a record pace, they were throwing combined shutouts, they were coming from behind, they were making ridiculous highlight reel defensive plays, they were winning night after night after night. Obviously, one ninth-inning meltdown does not wash all of that away. The Rays still have the best record in baseball. They still won more games in April than any team in MLB history. They still lead the Yankees by eight games on May 1. But the blown lead against the White Sox on Sunday afternoon was a cruel reminder that this could not possibly last. Like a teacher standing in the doorway to hand out quizzes on the first day back from summer break. With that in mind, here’s a few thoughts as the Rays get reacquainted with reality: Get those seatbelts fastened It’s hard to overstate just how friendly Tampa Bay’s schedule was in April. Only three teams have won less than 30% of their games this season. The Rays had 10 games against two of those teams. Only seven teams have won less than 40% of their games. The Rays had 16 games against four of them. So, yeah, catching the White Sox, Athletics, Tigers and Nationals was like a month worth of JV tuneups. And they’re about to pay for it in May. Of their 29 games in April, only 10 were against teams that currently have winning records. Of their 29 games in May, all 29 will be against teams that are currently above .500. Honestly, if Tampa Bay goes 15-14 in May it should be considered a very solid month. The dirty secret was just revealed When you lead the majors in runs scored and runs allowed, it’s hard to find fault anywhere in the clubhouse. But the Rays may have offered a sneak preview of heartaches to come on Sunday in Chicago. On the surface, the bullpen has done a fine job this season. Rays relievers have thrown more innings than any team in baseball, and their collective ERA of 2.97 is tied for third-best. But there have been some small warning signs that have mostly gone overlooked with all of the winning. For instance, Rays relievers are averaging 6.95 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s the lowest mark in MLB. And they’ve given up 48 walks, which trails only the Athletics and White Sox in the AL. Jason Adam was an absolute beast out of the bullpen in 2022 with a 1.56 ERA. His ERA in 2023 is very similar at 1.74, but his strikeouts are down while his ratio of walks and hits are both up. Colin Poche is another concern. He also has a very nifty looking ERA of 1.74, but he’s got one of the worst hard-hit rates in the game and his strikeout rate is pitiful. And we’re not talking about the 12th and 13th guys on the staff. Poche and Adam are both high-leverage pitchers. I’m not prepared to say this is a bad bullpen, but it’s not nearly as good as it has looked in April. One vote for unsung hero It’s safe to assume that Taj Bradley will pitch in meaningful games for the Rays later this season. That’s one of the main reasons he’s in Triple-A Durham now. The Rays want to control the number of innings he throws in the first half because he could be so valuable in the fall. That’s why I think Yonny Chirinos will be so critical to Tampa Bay’s fortunes in the coming month. With Jeffrey Springs out for the season and Tyler Glasnow still a few weeks away from being ready, the Rays are operating with a patchwork rotation while heading into this tough slate of games. And Chirinos is going to play a major role. It’s a small sample size so there are obligatory cautions about reading too much into his numbers, but Chirinos has been lights-out since returning from Tommy John surgery. Between the end of 2022 and the start of this season, he has held hitters to a .173 batting average and a 0.43 ERA across 21 innings of work. The Rays have been picking their spots with Chirinos, but the training wheels may come off soon. | 
No comments:
Post a Comment