| Raise your hand if you can hit 20 home runs |
| So the disappointment of 2022 is not that difficult to explain. The Rays had a pretty poor offense for most of the regular season, and an absolutely horrible offense in the wild-card series against Cleveland. And if we go just a little deeper we can pinpoint the biggest shortcoming. It wasn’t patience — the Rays were slightly better than average at drawing walks. And it wasn’t their .239 batting average — they were only a little below average in that department. No, the biggest problem was their lack of power. The Rays were more than 20% off the league pace for home runs, and it cost them in the postseason. In both of their losses, the difference was a game-winning homer by Cleveland. Which brings us to an obvious question: What are the chances that Tampa Bay rediscovers its power in 2023? And rediscover is the proper term, by the way. Because the Rays had a pretty potent offense in 2021 and, since they brought in no new bats in the offseason, it’s up to some familiar faces to provide that pop again this year. Can it be done? Yes, but the margin for error is a bit thin. The Rays do not just need to stay healthy, they need increased production from at least a half-dozen different players. Based on ESPN’s fantasy baseball projections, the Rays can expect 31 homers out of Brandon Lowe and 21 from Randy Arozarena. That’s it for 20-plus homers. According to Fangraphs’ projections, Lowe will hit 25 and Arozarena will get 22. And, again, that’s the extent of the 20-homer seasons. If those projections are anywhere near correct, the Rays are in trouble. Tampa Bay is going to need a handful of other players to flirt with 20-25 homers. That includes Isaac Paredes. And Wander Franco. And Christian Bethancourt. And Jose Siri. And either Josh Lowe or Luke Raley. That’s not an outlandish request. Siri, for instance, hit 20 homers between Triple-A and Houston in 2021. Lowe hit 22 homers at Triple-A in 2021. Raley hit 21 homers between Triple-A and the Dodgers in 2021. Paredes hit 24 homers between Triple-A and the Rays in 2022. Bethancourt hit 20 homers in Triple-A in 2018 before trying his hand at pitching for a couple of years. The point is the potential is there. But it’s also largely unproven. Josh Lowe bombed in his rookie season, Raley is still trying to claim a big-league roster spot at age 28, Bethancourt is 31 and topped 300 at-bats for the first time in 2022, and a lot of the computer models think Paredes’ power surge was somewhat of a fluke last year. So that’s what I mean by a thin margin for error. The Rays need Brandon Lowe to be in the 30-homer range. They need Arozarena to take a step forward and hit 25 or more. And they need a lot more out of Franco, Siri and Josh Lowe. On most teams, the corners in the infield and outfield are the power bats in the lineup. That’s a problem for the Rays. Yandy Diaz figures to get the most at-bats among the first and third basemen, and he’s more of a gap hitter than a power guy. Manuel Margot figures prominently in rightfield, and he’s never hit more than 13 homers in a half-dozen big-league seasons. That means the Rays need other guys to pick up the slack. That could be Franco at shortstop. That could be Josh Lowe or Raley platooning at designated hitter or in the outfield. That could be Siri in centerfield. It could be anyone, but it needs to happen. Now, it’s possible that MLB offenses could look a little different in 2023. Home runs fell off last season and speed could be more valuable this year with the new rule changes. So maybe the Rays do not need to get back to their 2019-21 level when they averaged about 1.35 homers per game. But they cannot survive on 0.86 home runs per game like last season. |
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