| [CHRIS O'MEARA | Associated Press] |
| Timing is everything when it comes to trades |
| With the trade deadline looming, I’ve been thinking about the qualities that set the Rays apart from most teams. You can start with the obvious: Their grasp of advanced analytics allows them to identify players who, for whatever reason, are underperforming with another team. The Rays get them below market value and then help them realize their potential by focusing on their better qualities. The Rays are also fearless when it comes to making trades. They don’t worry about public backlash or reputations, and they aren’t afraid to make the occasional mistake. They have enough faith in their scouting and evaluations that they make deals that other general managers would never consider. But the quality that really sets them apart? Honesty. The Rays are honest with themselves when it comes to evaluating their chances. They do not try to fool owner Stuart Sternberg, they do not try to fool their players, they do not try to fool their fans. If they think they have a chance to play deep into October, they will spend accordingly. Just like they did last season when they gave up Joe Ryan to get Nelson Cruz and his $13 million contract. But if they think they have a better chance at winning the World Series in 18 months, they’re not afraid to be sellers at the deadline even if they’re still in contention. They did it in 2009 when they were only 4.5 games out of the wild-card race and traded Scott Kazmir. They did it again in 2015 when they were 3.5 games out and traded David DeJesus and Kevin Jepsen. Which brings us to today. What are the Rays in 2022? Are they contenders or pretenders? Do they have a chance to reach the World Series, or are they more likely to flame out in the opening round? To be honest, I think they’re in a bit of a gray area. This was a very good team when the season began, but injuries obviously have taken a toll. Tampa Bay has been a mediocre team — a 26-27 record — for the better part of two months. The Rays have slipped from the No. 1 seed in the wild-card race to No. 3 in the last 10 days. So should they be buyers or sellers in the next 24 hours? Should they count on the idea that they’ll be close to full strength in September when Wander Franco, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez are back in the lineup, and some of their rehabbing pitchers are available again? Or are they better off acknowledging this season has been an unfortunate disappointment, and set their sights on another pennant run in 2023? Because of the unique situation with all of the injuries, I’m guessing they’ll straddle the fence. They’ve still got too much potential to turn into sellers this week, but they’re not going to give up top prospects Taj Bradley or Curtis Mead in order to pick up a high-end reliever or another starting pitcher. There’s just too much of a gap between them and the Yankees/Astros to realistically think one player puts them over the top. They’ve already made one move by acquiring David Peralta for a fairly low-level minor-leaguer, and they may make a similar move to shore up the pitching. If they’re honest with themselves — and they always are — I think the Rays see themselves as a postseason team with a puncher’s chance of winning the pennant, but with a better chance at getting deep into October in 2023. |
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