▼

Tuesday, 4 January 2022

POLITICO

POLITICO

Belgium to end quarantine for vaccinated COVID-19 close contacts

Posted: 04 Jan 2022 08:06 AM PST

Belgium is dropping the requirement for fully vaccinated people to self-isolate if they come into close contact with someone infected with COVID-19.

The rule applies to anyone who received their second vaccine dose or booster in the last five months but does not apply to unvaccinated people, who must still isolate for 10 days. This period can be cut to seven days however, with a daily negative antigen test through day 10, broadcaster VRT reported.

For vaccinated people who fall outside of the five-month gap, they must also isolate for 10 days, but can be released on day four with a daily negative antigen test through day 10. The new rules, backed by federal and regional health ministers on Tuesday, will come into effect on January 10.

Belgium is the latest county to relax isolation rules as coronavirus cases soar, fueled by the highly transmissible Omicron variant. While early data indicates three vaccine doses are highly protective against severe disease with Omicron, surging cases are nonetheless causing labor shortages as close contacts and infected people isolate.

Ireland, which currently has the highest rates of infection in Europe, is also considering the same measure. Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the current isolation rules for close contacts were causing problems across essential services including critical infrastructure, reported RTE.

The country has already cut the isolation period for infected people from 10 to seven days as cases skyrocketed over the Christmas period — an approach also taken by the U.K. and Spain.

Meanwhile, Greece and France have announced a move to five days’ isolation for infected people who are fully vaccinated, while Portugal is currently considering it, as well as dropping isolation entirely for close contacts.

The U.K. was the first country in Europe to drop isolation for vaccinated close contacts, in August last year.

Former Swedish bank CEO faces fraud charges in money-laundering case

Posted: 04 Jan 2022 07:27 AM PST

STOCKHOLM — A three-year-old money-laundering scandal continues to cast a dark shadow over Sweden's banking sector.

On Tuesday, the former chief executive of Swedbank, one of Sweden's big three lenders, was charged with fraud relating to statements she made in 2018 and 2019 about anti-money-laundering controls at her bank.

Amid media reports that dirty money had been flowing through Swedbank's Estonian operations, Birgitte Bonnesen — the CEO — sought to play down the concerns, telling investors and journalists that the bank had the situation under control.

In reality, as later investigations by Swedish authorities and lawyers appointed by Swedbank itself showed, the bank's anti-money-laundering regime had been too lax and had allowed money to flow from countries including Russia into Europe via Estonia without adequate checks.

Sweden's Economic Crime Authority said in a statement accompanying its decision to prosecute Bonnesen that comments she made in 2018 and 2019 broke Swedish law.

"The former CEO of the bank intentionally or through gross negligence … disseminated misleading information about the bank’s measures to prevent, detect, and report suspicions of money laundering in Swedbank’s operations in Estonia," lead prosecutor Thomas Langrot said.

Bonnesen denies the charges, her lawyer Per E. Samuelson told Swedish news agency TT.

No trial date was given in the prosecutor's statement.

For Scandinavia, the charging of Bonnesen is the latest development in a painful reckoning with years of missteps by some of the region's largest banks in their dealings with customers in the Baltic states.

Like Denmark's Danske Bank, Swedbank was keen to build up operations in Estonia in the early 2000s as the small Baltic state joined the EU and later the eurozone. Among other opportunities, both banks saw a chance to earn fees managing funds moving through the Baltic banking system. 

But from 2017 onwards, when Danske and later Swedbank began facing testing questions from authorities — in Estonia and their home countries — about the origin and destination of some of these funds, they struggled to give adequate answers.

Bonnesen — like her counterpart at Danske, Thomas Borgen — was ultimately ousted from her position as CEO, and both Swedbank and Danske faced heavy fines and vowed to tighten anti-money-laundering controls.

For the European Commission, the scandals at Swedbank and Danske underlined the need for an increased focus on opaque money flows, and in July 2021 Brussels launched a strategy including a proposal to create a new EU authority to combat money laundering.

"The aim of this package is to improve the detection of suspicious transactions and activities, and to close loopholes used by criminals to launder illicit proceeds or finance terrorist activities through the financial system," the Commission said.

Tuesday's charges against Bonnesen showed that the job of investigating the missteps of the past is still not complete.

Langrot, the lead prosecutor, said the Swedish Economic Crime Authority's preliminary investigation had shown that there was a "clear strategy" from Bonnesen and others to stop information about problems with Swedbank's anti-money-laundering processes in Estonia from reaching the market.

"Another way of saying this is that there is evidence of a cover-up," he said.

This article is part of POLITICO's premium policy service: Pro Financial Services. From the eurozone, banking union, CMU, and more, our specialized journalists keep you on top of the topics driving the Financial Services policy agenda. Email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.

Melania Trump’s hat from Macron visit … yours for just $250K in crypto

Posted: 04 Jan 2022 07:02 AM PST

Christmas may have gone but it’s not too late to get your hands (and head) on a lovely, if pricey, gift — an “iconic” hat that Melania Trump wore when the Macrons visited the White House.

The former U.S. first lady announced Tuesday that, later this month, she will hold an auction called The Head of State Collection featuring three items: the “iconic broad-brimmed, one-of-a-kind hat” that she wore when Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron visited the White House for a state visit in April 2018; a watercolor of her wearing the same hat by French artist Marc-Antoine Coulon; and a digital version of that same artwork (in the form of a non-fungible token, or NFT).

The price? Well, bids will start at $250,000 — some of the money raised will go to charity — and you can only pay in cryptocurrency.

Melania Trump was heavily involved in planning the Macrons’ visit in 2018, which came less than a year after the Trumps were wowed by the militaristic bravura of France's Bastille Day celebrations. To return the hospitality favor, she helped organize everything about the visit including the dinner menu, which featured a goat cheese gateau, tomato jam, buttermilk biscuit crumbles and young variegated lettuces; a rack of spring lamb and a New Orleans-inspired Carolina gold rice jambalaya; and a nectarine tart dessert infused with White House honey and accompanied by crème fraîche ice cream.

No word on how “young variegated lettuces” went down with her husband, whose favorite food, according to his former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, is "a full McDonald's dinner of two Big Macs, two Filet-O-Fish sandwiches, and a small chocolate shake – a total of 2,430 calories." Former White House physician Ronny Jackson told the New York Times that he put cauliflower into Donald Trump's mashed potatoes.

If $250,000+ is a bit much for your wallet, Donald Trump’s website is still selling the “Classic” MAGA hat for $30.

UK Labour would push for US trade deal

Posted: 04 Jan 2022 03:53 AM PST

LONDON — A U.K. Labour government would aim to strike a trade deal with the United States.

In an interview with POLITICO, new Shadow International Trade Secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said the promise of a free-trade agreement with Washington — a key pledge of Brexiteers — must be delivered. "The U.S. trade deal is something that has been promised to the British people, and the government should deliver it," the opposition frontbencher said.

Asked if Labour would take up the baton of pushing for a deal, he said: "Yes. We would be pursuing trade deals around the world."

The ambition could be controversial among Labour members and other campaigners who are skeptical of U.S. business interests and are worried about lower-standard agricultural products being imported to Britain. The U.K. government started negotiations on a deal but talks dried up after Joe Biden became U.S. president.

A Labour government would also follow the Biden approach on "worker-centered trade," Thomas-Symonds said, adding that giving trade unions a stronger voice in trade discussions was a particular element of the Biden approach that Labour would adopt. "What is absolutely central is that our trade policy delivers for workers here in the U.K.," he said. 

His comments suggest the upending of the trade world by former U.S. President Donald Trump is here to stay. Trump turned the U.S. stance from trade liberalization to greater protectionism — a model his successor has carried over, albeit in softer language.

Thomas-Symonds also suggested Labour would change tack from the more skeptical approach to trade under his predecessor Emily Thornberry, to a more positive approach that champions the opportunities. Thornberry was seen by some in the trade world as too anti-Brexit, representing a strong Remain-voting seat, whereas Thomas-Symonds represents a pro-Brexit area.

"What I'm going to be doing is looking forward not back," he said. "This is a huge moment to deliver for communities here in the U.K. but also to be able to project our values around the world."

The Labour frontbencher argued his experience as an international politics tutor at Oxford will give him an edge in the new job. 

"I taught diplomats from all around the world," he said. "I taught for many years American politics, British politics, European politics, Soviet politics, and so our relationship with the rest of the world has always been something that is a deep passion and interest of mine."

And he said his experience representing the former industrial seat of Torfaen in South Wales, an area that still produces steel, would also stand him in good stead for the role. "My father is retired now but he was a steel worker, which is why the issue of steel tariffs means so much to me," he said, noting that exports are crucial for manufacturing.

‘Close the loopholes’: The Pentagon’s next front in its hunt for extremists

Posted: 04 Jan 2022 03:46 AM PST

One year after a few dozen military veterans took part in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon has responded by tightening regulations to combat extremism in the ranks.

But the war has only just begun, according to Defense Department officials, lawmakers and experts on extremist movements.

Military leaders say they are still struggling to determine how many troops are engaging in extremist behavior and refine what activities should be barred. They have yet to develop recommended training for commanders and senior enlisted leaders to spot white supremacists, as well as anti-government or other radical elements hiding in their units. And proposed reforms to the military justice system to make extremism a crime are the focus of a new review mandated by Congress.

But perhaps most of all, the Pentagon needs to avoid the mistake it has made too many times before: losing focus on an enduring threat once the public and high-level attention fades. But there are serious doubts leaders have the staying power to make the new efforts stick.

"The past 40 years has basically been a history of some sort of crisis that illustrates extremism in the military and then there's some sort of patchwork measures taken to try to deal with it," said Mark Pitcavage, a leading authority on extremism at the Anti-Defamation League.

"And then it kind of subsides until the next crisis."

Heidi Urben, a retired Army colonel and specialist on the military and politics at Georgetown University, agreed that the key is "to what extent the services will be able to sustain focus and command emphasis at all levels from this point out."

She noted that the military branches, "particularly the Army, placed a lot of emphasis on countering extremism in the 1990s, and then that attention dissipated."

At least 80 of the 700 individuals charged in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol have a record of military service. And one study put it as high as 118 — or more than 15 percent.

Their leading role served as a wake-up call for military leaders. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a forcewide stand down to remind the troops of prohibited behavior. He also established a working group to review the issue and recommend changes.

In December, Austin issued a memorandum ordering "increased clarity" on what constitutes extremist behavior that could get troops kicked out of the military and how commanders should handle it.

He also approved revised guidelines that add new activities to the list of prohibited actions, including "liking" an extremist post on social media.

"The available data generally shows that cases of prohibited extremist activity among service members was rare,"the Pentagon working group concluded in reaching its consensus last month. "However, even a small number of cases can pose a significant problem, challenging safety and unit cohesion."

'To spot that sort of stuff'

The Defense Department is the first to acknowledge it has a lot more work to do.

Top of the list is developing more effective means to track how many troops are being punished or removed on a regular basis for engaging in extremist activities, either through the military justice system or criminal or administrative investigations by the military branches’ internal watchdogs.

The working group pegged the number at roughly 100 in 2021, but also asserted it's probably not a complete picture of a phenomenon that operates mostly in the shadows.

"While our ability to track those cases has improved since 2018 with the introduction of systems for flagging or coding cases that has that element," a DoD official recently told reporters, "those systems have come online at different points over the last several years. So it makes it a bit challenging to compare data … one year to another."

Cassie Miller, a researcher on extremism at the Southern Poverty Law Center, said the recent burst of extremist activity and movements nationally means the military desperately needs a better understanding of how much it has become a breeding ground, especially for those who leave the service.

"There hasn’t been a priority [historically] on gathering that kind of data," Miller said. "And so in a lot of cases, it simply does not exist."

Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told POLITICO that the recent decisions are seen as an initial salvo in a longer-term strategy to tackle the threat.

The Defense Department's extremist working group has outlined a series of additional efforts to try to get a better picture.

For example, it enlisted the Institute for Defense Analyses, a government think tank, to complete a more detailed study of the extent of the extremism problem by June 2022. The study will include a review of "information-collection systems and data" and "behavioral pathways to extremist activity" such as how extremist groups recruit followers or encourage members to join the military to receive training.

A separate study by the Pentagon's Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security will also evaluate new procedures for background investigations in order to flag potential extremists trying to join the military or entering the ranks of defense contractors with access to weapons and other sensitive equipment.

The working group's report also recommended developing a plan to train DoD personnel and leaders on prohibited activity.

"Not everybody needs to be trained on that," Pitcavage said. "But people in a number of positions, from recruiters to initial entry trainers and advanced trainers, company grade officers and senior enlisted personnel, there are key people that are in positions to spot that sort of stuff."

Who is an extremist?

But Pitcavage also believes the Pentagon's updated catalog of what is considered out of bounds "very, very narrowly" defines extremist behavior.

"They all have to be based on one or more of the extremist activities that are listed," he said. "And all of those have to do with basically violence, criminal activities or breaking regulations."

But that raises the question of whether a service member could be a member of a white supremacist group "as long as it doesn’t specifically advocate the overthrow of the government or violence against people of other races or religions," Pitcavage added.

The problem with that, in his view, is "most white supremacist groups don’t advocate the overthrow of the government."

Even one white supremacist in a military unit "can create all sorts of problems completely unrelated to overthrowing the government," he warned. "They can pass on information to other extremists, including those who might belong to explicitly violent groups."

"They're going to have to expand the range of extremist activities that are covered," he said.

Kirby disagreed with the claim that the new regulations are too broad. He said the rules include a "very detailed list of what we consider to be active participation in extremist activity," including fundraising, attending rallies, or espousing racist or other violent ideologies such as "advocating widespread unlawful discrimination."

Pitcavage would also like to see more focus on preventing troops from supporting extremist individuals, not just groups.

"Most white supremacists are not actual members of white supremacist groups," he said. "In the days of the internet the need to join a formal group is simply far less than it used to be decades ago."

"They are going to have to close the loopholes like that," he added.

Kirby countered that the new rules barring "active participation" will make it "very difficult for you to provide support to individuals as well," Kirby added. "We're proud of the specificity."

Pentagon pushback

Leading advocates in Congress for taking more aggressive action have lauded the Pentagon's new guidelines.

But they also complain that the brass has resisted taking more aggressive steps to build a more sustained effort to keep extremist influences at bay over the long term.

Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.), an Army lawyer and member of the Armed Services Committee, led the effort after Jan. 6 to adopt legislation that would establish a dedicated office within the Pentagon for combating extremism.

But his bipartisan proposal, which passed the House, was stripped from the final defense policy bill after Pentagon opposition. He called that "a real missed opportunity to take a giant step forward."

The measure would also have put Congress on the record that membership in an extremist group should be disqualifying for military service.

"We got a lot of pushback from the Pentagon on that issue," Brown said in an interview, recounting military concerns about infringing on free speech. "They were fearful of constitutional challenges."

Kirby maintained that there was an active debate about barring membership in such groups outright. "It was an active part of our deliberations," he said. "There were genuine First Amendment rights we felt needed to be considered."

But Brown dismissed that argument. "I am well aware of the deference that courts give to both the president and Congress when it comes to restricting constitutional freedoms in order to maintain good order and discipline in the military," he said.

"I thought that was a missed opportunity to make that clear statement," he added.

Brown also said the Pentagon opposed other mandates. For instance, "they thought the training requirements and data collection were overly burdensome, which is a joke," he said.

'There will have to be more'

Fellow Army veteran Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), another member of the Armed Services Committee, believes far more action will be needed to ensure new measures take root.

"This was a first step and I think there will have to be more," Crow said of the recent Pentagon reforms. "This is going to rely a lot on command commitment and commitment of the senior leadership pushing this down to the lower ranks in the military.

"I wanted to see this formalized, have some formal structures put into place that would help push that sustained long term change and cultural shift that we need and to make this a priority," he added in an interview.

Potentially still ripe for revision is the Uniform Code of Military Justice to make extremist behavior a crime.

The National Defense Authorization Act included a provision requiring Austin to submit a report "containing such recommendations as the Secretary considers appropriate with respect to the establishment of a separate punitive article in the UCMJ on violent extremism.”

Urben said “what makes this particular campaign — combating extremism in the military — especially challenging is the sentiment that concerns about extremism in the military might be overblown, or that a handful of egregious offenders unfairly paint the entire institution in a negative light.”

"It’s hard to deter extremism or hold folks accountable on a consistent basis without having clear terminology, definitions, standards," she added. "All of these efforts require sustained command-level emphasis over a long period of time to be effective."

And that means not letting up when the issue is out of the headlines. "Measures have to be put in place to continually detect and deal with it on an ongoing basis," Pitcavage said. "The military does seem to be moving in that direction, but the steps taken so far are just the first steps in what is going to be a considerable journey."

Frank-Walter Steinmeier set for second term as German president

Posted: 04 Jan 2022 03:44 AM PST

Frank-Walter Steinmeier is set for another term as German president, after his candidacy was backed by Germany’s Green party.

Steinmeier is a “very good and highly respected Federal President who earned great merits for our country in his first term of office,” Green party leaders said Tuesday in a joint statement. “We are convinced that he will continue to support and guide our society on the difficult way out of the pandemic.”

Steinmeier, who has been Germany’s president since 2017, is the only declared candidate running for reelection, ahead of the parliamentary vote on February 13. Despite speculation around a rival from the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, no candidate has come forward.

Steinmeier’s Social Democratic party and the Free Democrats have also expressed support for Steinmeier, and that parliamentary arithmetic makes him the likely winner. He would then serve for another five years as Germany’s president.

To win the race, Steinmeier needs an absolute majority from the 1,472-member Federal Assembly in the first two ballots. If the race went to a third ballot, a simple plurality would suffice.

Italy’s parliament set to vote for new president on January 24

Posted: 04 Jan 2022 02:52 AM PST

Italy’s parliament and regional representatives will start voting for the new head of state on January 24, the president of the country’s lower house announced Tuesday. 

“I have convened the Parliament in a common session for the election of the President of the Republic on January 24 at 3 p.m.,” Roberto Fico said in a statement, posted to Facebook.

A total of 1,009 electors, from the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies and including 58 regional representatives, will cast secret ballots in a series of voting rounds. In the first three rounds of voting, a two-thirds majority is required to elect the president. From the fourth round on, only an absolute majority is required.

Current Prime Minister Mario Draghi is said to be the favored candidate for the position. Other potential contenders are former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, former lower house speaker Pierferdinando Casini, former Prime Minister Giuliano Amato and the current Justice Minister Marta Cartabia.

The new president will replace incumbent Sergio Mattarella for a 7-year mandate and will be in charge of officially appointing the prime minister, representing national unity and guaranteeing compliance with the Italian constitution.

European elections to watch in 2022

Posted: 03 Jan 2022 07:00 PM PST

From EU reformer Emmanuel Macron to EU troublemaker Viktor Orbán, some of the Union’s most vocal supporters and critics are facing tough electoral challenges at home in 2022 that could in turn shake up political dynamics across the Continent.

European hopes for closer cooperation with Washington will also likely get put on the backburner as the U.S. descends into a midterm election come November — a major test for Joe Biden that could see one or both houses of Congress change hands away from his Democratic party, dealing a blow to the president’s ability to pass legislation.

POLITICO pulled together a brief guide to some of the key elections in Europe to watch in 2022.

Portuguese legislative election — January 30

What's at stake: Socialist Prime Minister António Costa is hoping to hold onto power in this snap election, called after his minority government was defeated in a key budget vote.

Who to watch: Costa's most serious rival is Rui Rio, president of Portugal's main center-right opposition party, the Social Democrats (PSD). Costa's Socialist Party (PS) is still well ahead in opinion polls, at around 37 percent to the Social Democrats' 30 percent, but that gap has slowly narrowed in recent months and such results would mean both parties would need to team up with others to form a majority coalition. During the budget vote that triggered the election, Costa lost the support of two left-wing parties that had allowed his government to stay in power, the Communist Party and the Left Bloc. Rio has expressed an openness to enabling a Socialist-led government after the election, but Costa has rejected negotiating with the center right.

Meanwhile, the far-right Chega (meaning "enough") party, which previously had just one seat in parliament, could become the third-largest party there, polling at around 7 percent.

PORTUGAL NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS


All 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Kalman Smooth Kalman

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Serbian general election — April 3

What's at stake: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has been the most prominent political figure in Serbia over the past decade, but critics both inside and outside the country consider him to be too dominant. Academics, rights activists, Western diplomats and opposition politicians say he has presided over serious backsliding on democracy, freedom and the rule of law. The country held a parliamentary election in 2020, but Vučić announced a new one would take place early — even before a new government had been finalized after the last vote. Analysts have said this call for an early election appeared to be a strategic move by Vučić to bolster legitimacy after opponents boycotted the prior ballot. It's also set to coincide with the presidential vote.

French elections — presidential votes April 10 and 24, parliamentary votes June 12 and 19

What's at stake: Emmanuel Macron is set to seek reelection in the presidential vote in April, before the country decides on a new parliament come June. Even if Macron wins a second term, the parliamentary vote will be crucial to implementing the changes he seeks, but the defeats suffered by his centrist La République En Marche party in local elections since he took office don't bode well for them in June.

Who to watch: Polls predict Macron, who hasn't formally announced his candidacy but is expected to do so at the beginning of the new year, will make it past the first round of voting. Who he will face in the second round is the question. Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally had long been pegged to become his top rival once again in a repeat of 2017, but her popularity has been threatened by the rise of another far-right figure, TV pundit-turned-politician Eric Zemmour, as well as conservative Les Républicains candidate Valérie Pécresse, who has surged in the polls, with some now even placing her ahead of Le Pen. Whether Macron takes on Le Pen or Pécresse, he's still currently expected to win, but at a much narrower margin than he won in his first election: 57 percent to 43 percent if against Le Pen, and 53 percent to 47 percent against Pécresse, compared to the 32.2 percentage point victory he secured in 2017.

FRANCE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS


All 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Kalman Smooth Kalman

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Hungarian parliamentary election — expected in April

What's at stake: Hungary's long-time right-wing populist leader Viktor Orbán faces his toughest election since returning for a second stint as prime minister in 2010. For the first time, his opponents have united in an effort to oust him from office by backing a single candidate.

An opposition win would change the political temperature in Budapest but also the dynamics in EU meetings with other member countries, where Hungary has often played the role of the rebel. It would also have geopolitical implications given Orbán’s ties to Beijing and Moscow. A new government would likely align more closely with the EU, the U.S. and NATO. Victory for Orbán, however, would cement his power and allow him to continue building an alliance of far-right and Euroskeptic forces across the Continent. 

Who to watch: Orbán's Fidesz party will face off against the diverse coalition that makes up the United Opposition, led by Péter Márki-Zay, the conservative mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely. Polls have predicted a neck-and-neck race, with Fidesz at around 48 percent support as of mid-December, just ahead of the United Opposition on 46 percent. To win, Márki-Zay will have to keep his largely left-wing coalition onside, without alienating more conservative voters who could be tempted by Fidesz. Actually governing would also require him to juggle his alliance's competing interests and worldviews.

HUNGARY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS


All 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Kalman Smooth Kalman

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Slovenian elections — parliamentary vote April 24, presidential by October

What's at stake: Janez Janša, a close Orbán ally, also faces an electoral challenge in the spring before the country later chooses a new president. Current President Borut Pahor is not eligible for reelection due to term limits.

Who to watch: Janša entered his third term in office in March 2020 amid the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, having cobbled together an alliance of four parties after the collapse of the previous center-left government. But his own coalition soon started to crumble with the departure of the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS) last December, citing the government's handling of the pandemic as well as concerns about media restrictions and other rule of law issues. Such concerns have also raised questions about the prime minister's political future. 

Janša's main rival is Tanja Fajon, leader of Slovenia's Social Democrats (SD) and currently a member of the European Parliament. The SD trails Janša's right-wing populist Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) in the polls, but Janša's opponents hope that by banding parties together, they'll be able to defeat him.

SLOVENIA NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS


All 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Kalman Smooth Kalman

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Northern Ireland election — May 5 or sooner

What’s at stake: This vote could come sooner than expected: Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Jeffrey Donaldson has threatened to withdraw from the region’s power-sharing government and trigger an early election due to the ongoing dispute between the U.K. and EU over post-Brexit trading arrangements in Northern Ireland. The so-called Northern Ireland protocol aims to maintain the integrity of the EU's single market post-Brexit while avoiding a politically-sensitive hard border between Northern Ireland, part of the U.K., and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member country. London and Brussels continue to spar over the operation of the protocol amid political controversy in Northern Ireland and complaints from traders in the U.K. about its rules. Dublin has expressed concern that Northern Ireland’s upcoming vote could essentially become a referendum on the protocol.

The Irish nationalist Sinn Féin party is expected to do well in the Northern Ireland Assembly election, potentially replacing the DUP as the largest party, and therefore raising concern among Unionists. With the party also rising in popularity south of the border in the Republic, some analysts say the prospect of a united Ireland long touted by Sinn Féin no longer seems far-fetched.

Swedish general election — September 11

What's at stake: Magdalena Andersson, Sweden’s freshly sworn-in first female prime minister, hopes to lead her Social Democrats to victory in September's election, but she's facing a major threat from the right. Her predecessor, Stefan Löfven, resigned this past November, hoping that installing a new party leader a few months ahead of the vote might create the opportunity for a fresh start with voters for his party and break the recent deadlock in parliament. But Andersson now faces a series of stiff challenges to make that happen.

Who to watch: Andersson's main rival is center-right Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson, and the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) under Jimmie Åkesson are determined to dislodge her in Kristersson's favor. The Social Democrats have been leading in the polls, at around 30 percent support as of mid-December, but some of their traditional allies like the Greens are polling below the 4 percent threshold to take seats. Kristersson has pointed out that the loose grouping he leads — three center-right parties plus the SD — only needs one more parliamentary seat than it currently has to take power in September. "I'm looking forward to election day," Kristersson said recently. 

SWEDEN NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS


All 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Kalman Smooth Kalman

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

Other elections to watch

Maltese general election — date not set

Austrian presidential election — date not set 

Latvian parliamentary election — October 1

Bosnian general election — October 2

U.S. midterm election — November 8

EU flag is collateral damage as French presidential campaign heats up

Posted: 03 Jan 2022 01:49 PM PST

PARIS — On the surface, the outrage that greeted the EU flag flying solo under the Arc de Triomphe at the weekend was a political storm in a teacup. But it also showed that Europe will be just one of many divisive issues in the upcoming election.

The hoisting of the EU flag (and not the French one) was meant to mark the beginning of the French presidency of the Council of the EU, which kicked off on January 1. Instead, it turned into a fight over France's history and identity and gave a sense of what is to come in the highly-charged presidential campaign that will dominate French politics until April.

Far-right candidates Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour — not exactly fans of the EU — quickly denounced the move as a "provocation that offends those who fought for France" and an "outrage" (the Arc honors those who fought and died for France in battle and houses the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier).

Even mainstream conservative presidential candidate Valerie Pécresse said the move was "erasing French identity" and called on President Emmanuel Macron to fly the national flag next to the European banner, as former President Nicolas Sarkozy had done at a ceremony reviving the flame at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier when the country last held the EU presidency in 2008.

Far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon said the flag affair was "disdainful."

The attack by all of Macron's presidential rivals highlights one of the main divisions in the campaign, pitting the one unabashedly pro-EU (if still undeclared) candidate — Macron — against candidates with varying degrees of Euroskepticism.

Support for the European project is the glue that binds Macron’s motley crew electorate, according to internal polling for his political movement La République en Marche. The attacks from rivals seem intended to stifle any attempt by Macron to leverage the EU presidency for his reelection.

It is also the first in a long list of likely mini-controversies around interpretations of France's history, and the place of the EU and ethnic and religious diversity in it, that will dot the next four months.

Macron's government and supporters defended the flag placement, saying the soldiers commemorated at the Arc de Triomphe would have celebrated the decades of peace the EU has heralded.

“The founding fathers of the European Union built it to end centuries of war and of sacrifices by soldiers, including unknown soldiers. Seventy years later, this controversy is undignified,” French Justice Minister Éric Dupond-Moretti tweeted on behalf of himself and Junior Minister for Europe Clément Beaune.

They pointed to the fact that other important monuments around Paris — including the Eiffel Tower, Notre-Dame and the Elysée Palace — were lit in blue in honor of the EU presidency without triggering the same firestorm.

That defense seems to miss the power of symbolism, especially ahead of big elections, in times of pessimism and hardship. The French are some of the most Euroskeptic people in the EU, and a majority say France is in decline.

Plus, only the Arc de Triomphe was adorned with the flag of Europe, which for some harked back to the occupation of Paris when the Nazi flag was hoisted on the monument.

The move was also in apparent violation of a 1963 French decree stipulating that "flying the colors of Europe on monuments is possible as long as it is done alongside French colors, on the condition that the European flag be placed to the right of the French flag."

Though other monuments continue to be lit in EU blue, the flag was taken down from the Arc on Sunday, in what was apparent governmental backpedaling.

Beaune on Sunday said it had always been the plan for the flag to come down that day, but on Saturday he had said that the EU flag was meant to fly for “a few days.”

An Elysée spokesperson denied the flag was taken down under pressure, saying it had been removed as scheduled.

Poland’s government scrambles to minimize hacking backlash

Posted: 03 Jan 2022 11:29 AM PST

WARSAW — Poland's nationalist government is trying to downplay allegations that it improperly bought Pegasus phone hacking software from an Israeli company to spy on its opponents.

On Monday, Deputy Justice Minister Michał Woś tried to turn the issue into a joke, tweeting a picture of a 1990s game console also called Pegasus and calling a report that the government used funds meant to compensate crime victims to buy the software a "rewarmed cutlet."

Last week the minister said he had "no knowledge of such a system."

But that's not the way the opposition sees it.

"Polish Watergate is expanding its reach. Pegasus was not only used illegally, it was also bought illegally," tweeted Bogdan Zdrojewski, a senior MP with the opposition Civic Platform party.

That's a response to a report by the opposition-aligned Gazeta Wyborcza newspaper that the 25 million złoty (€5.4 million) for the software was handed over to the CBA anti-corruption agency in 2017 from a special justice ministry fund supposed to be used to help crime victims.

“The allegations of Gazeta Wyborcza are incorrect,” the justice ministry told POLITICO in an email. “The fund supported the Central Anticorruption Bureau in accordance with its statutory obligation to provide funds aimed at countering crime.”

The purchase was confirmed last week by Marian Banaś, head of the Supreme Audit Office, a government watchdog that's been at odds with the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party for years. He said his agency found an invoice for buying Pegasus software during a 2019 probe of government finances. The transfer was signed by Woś.

"The Pegasus scandal is a serious threat to democracy and requires a detailed explanation because it concerns the suspicion of illegal surveillance of politicians and citizens," Banaś told Polsat television last week.

Pegasus malware exploits software vulnerabilities to gain access to phones and is sold by Israeli firm NSO Group, mainly to government entities.

Controversy around its use has lingered for years and erupted last summer when an investigation called Pegasus Project found that the software was used in more than 50 countries on members of civil society, politicians, lawyers, journalists and others.

France, Spain and Hungary were among countries where journalists had been targeted. In the case of Hungary, researchers also linked the use of Pegasus to the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

The use of the spyware by European governments isn’t illegal in itself; they can use such software if it falls within rules protecting people’s privacy and freedom from government surveillance.

The European Union last year agreed on tougher rules for member countries to export similar tools to authoritarian regimes, but the bloc is now grappling with how to stop its use by governments for illegitimate purposes — as, the opposition claims, happened in Poland.

The Polish hacks were first discovered by Toronto-based Citizen Lab, a watchdog group that examined several phones of prominent Polish people.

The Associated Press reported last month that the phone of Senator Krzysztof Brejza — who headed Civic Platform's campaign during the 2019 parliamentary election — was hacked by the Israeli spyware. He charges the information was used by the ruling party to "destabilize" his plans.

The phones of prominent opposition lawyer Roman Giertych and prosecutor Ewa Wrzosek — at odds with Justice Minister and Chief Prosecutor Zbigniew Ziobro — were also hacked.

"This government is now using legislation and special powers reserved to fight terrorism for its own political goals," Giertych told POLITICO last week.

The government has been trying to play down the scale of the scandal.

“I have large reservations about the revelations from Gazeta Wyborcza,” Radosław Fogiel, a PiS spokesperson, told Poland’s Radio Zet, adding: “How can I be certain that one of the authors didn’t find an old Pegasus console in their attic?”

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said last week that there was more fake news than facts in the Pegasus issue but also pledged that the matter would be probed "until the very end."

He also suggested that other — presumably foreign — special services might have been behind the hack.

Laurens Cerulus contributed reporting.

Want more analysis from POLITICO? POLITICO Pro is our premium intelligence service for professionals. From financial services to trade, technology, cybersecurity and more, Pro delivers real time intelligence, deep insight and breaking scoops you need to keep one step ahead. Email pro@politico.eu to request a complimentary trial.
at

No comments:

Post a Comment