Sunday, 30 January 2022

POLITICO

POLITICO


UK eyes ‘biggest possible’ military support to NATO

Posted: 30 Jan 2022 02:35 AM PST

British troops are preparing to "deploy across Europe next week," said U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson as preparations intensify for armed conflict to protect Ukraine from a Russian incursion.

Johnson is considering the "biggest possible offer to NATO," according to a statement late Saturday, which could include sending defensive weapons to Estonia and doubling troop levels there, which currently stand at 900. Fast jets, warships and military specialists could also be directed to protect NATO allies.

"This package would send a clear message to the Kremlin," Johnson said. "We will not tolerate their destabilizing activity, and we will always stand with our NATO allies in the face Russian hostility."

The moves are intended to tighten pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as talks continue over the estimated 100,000 Russian troops amassed near Ukraine's border and Russian demands that NATO pull back in the region.

Johnson is planning to call Putin and travel to the region "early this week." British foreign and defense secretaries are also planning trips to Moscow to meet with their counterparts.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss — who will head to Ukraine in the coming days — said on Sunday that the British military offering could also include more air support over the Black Sea, and that she is preparing new sanctions legislation to target the Kremlin more directly.

Speaking to Sky News' Trevor Phillips, Truss dismissed concerns about the cost of sanctions to the U.K. economy. "We cannot favor short-term economic interests over the long-term survival of freedom and democracy in Europe — that's the tough decision all of us have got to make," she said.

Separately, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will go to Ukraine on February 7 and 8, Le Drian announced. Baerbock echoed the message, citing a commitment to the "inviolability of Ukraine and its people."

Paris and Berlin are on a parallel four-way negotiating track with Kyiv and Moscow, known as the Normandy format. On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by telephone with Putin, who complained that the U.S. and NATO are ignoring Russia's "fundamental concerns" about the alliance's growth. The Kremlin has also dismissed a Monday's planned U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine as "a clear P.R. stunt."

The Kremlin is opting to back away from one planned provocation: Russian naval exercises within Ireland's economic zone slated for next week will be relocated, Russian Ambassador to Ireland Yuriy Filatov said Saturday, as a "gesture of goodwill" to avoid disrupting Irish fishing activity.

Sergio Mattarella — Italy’s captive president

Posted: 30 Jan 2022 02:08 AM PST

ROME — In the weeks leading up to Italy’s presidential election, President Sergio Mattarella made it abundantly clear that he was retiring.

He made sure to be spotted house-hunting. An aide posted pictures on social media of his moving boxes all packed. He insisted repeatedly that his time was up.

But after almost a week of political gridlock, and infighting that exposed deep divisions in the governing coalition, Mattarella has been coerced into staying on, in the interest of stability. His decision averts the imminent threat of early elections. After votes for Mattarella reached the majority of 505, MPs in the Chamber of Deputies stood up, applauding and exchanging high-fives. Internet memes in Italy on Saturday jokingly depicted Mattarella as a hostage.

Parliamentarians and regional delegates began voting on Monday to find a successor for Mattarella, whose seven-year term expires on February 3.

The president has the power to appoint prime ministers and cabinets and has wide-ranging powers in times of crisis. The left has had the advantage over the past three decades. But this time with neither right- or left-wing blocs able to command a majority, lawmakers were unable to reach an agreement on a unity figure.

With Italy in the midst of a punishing fourth wave of COVID and facing the double challenge of safeguarding the economic recovery and implementing the EU's post-pandemic investment fund, pressure was growing on political leaders to avoid an impasse the country could not afford.  

As party leaders failed to make progress, rebel lawmakers increasingly backed Mattarella in the daily ballots, with his tally rising from 125 on Wednesday, to 387 in the first round on Saturday. In the end, Mattarella garnered 759 of the 1,009 possible votes.

After six failed rounds of voting, Prime Minister Mario Draghi intervened and asked Mattarella to stay on, according to a person familiar with the situation, and lobbied party leaders to converge on the plan.

Party representatives formally went to the presidential palace to appeal to Mattarella. “Given the situation, we begged him to stay for another term,” Senator Julia Unterberger said. Mattarella said he “had other plans for his future” but given the situation would make himself available, Unterberger said.

Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, leader of the center-right Forza Italia party, said that unity “today can only be found around the figure of President Sergio Mattarella, of whom we know we’re asking a great sacrifice.”

Supporters saw Italy’s position as strengthened. "It's a net win for Italy,” said centrist MP Bruno Tabacci. “At the G20 last year, all the other countries recognized the authoritative leadership of Draghi and Mattarella. Now their leadership has been confirmed the government is in a position to meet the requirements of Europe, manage this delicate phase of COVID and relaunch the economy," he said.

"You don't change a winning team,” regional delegate Dino Latini said. “It could be seen as not very innovative, but with this decision the parliament, government and Italy's image have all been saved.”

Mattarella's election means Draghi will stay on as prime minister, avoiding early elections. Draghi himself had been considered a candidate, but failed to get wide backing from the parties because of the difficulty of finding a replacement prime minister who could command the same governing majority. A major obstacle was anxiety among parliamentarians about early elections, after which many expect to lose their seat due to cuts in the size of the parliament.

Giorgio Fede, a senator with the 5Star Movement, said that it would have been wrong to elect Draghi. "It was not the moment to have a political crisis," he said.

"Draghi was given a job, to manage the pandemic and the recovery fund, both still apply today so it's right to allow him to continue his work," Fede said. 

Not everyone saw the result as positive. The opposition Brothers of Italy voted against Mattarella. 5Star Senator Sergio Romagnoli said that while Mattarella is "very capable" the decision represented "a failure of politics."

The 5Star Movement failed in their attempt to elect Italy's first woman president, Romagnoli pointed out. "We would have preferred a woman. We had the opportunity to turn the page, create new energy. But we had to work together to find an agreement," he said.

With the election over, Draghi must attempt to rebuild his unwieldy coalition, no easy task following the breakdown in trust. After failing to get support from all the parties, Draghi’s own standing took a hit, but his decision to be part of the solution is likely to help him regain authority.

It is likely that a realignment will be needed. On Saturday night, 5Star leader Giuseppe Conte and Matteo Salvini of the League requested talks with Draghi for clarification on the government program and to identify new priorities.

Maurizio Gasparri, senator in Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, said the coalition forces would need a little time to get back to normal, but was confident it would remain standing until the end of the legislature. "It is needed to deal with the emergencies," he said.

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