Monday, 1 November 2021

Why the FBI & DOD ignored the Insurrection

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Why the FBI & DOD ignored the Insurrection

A blockbuster Washington Post story shows that the FBI was afraid of angering Donald Trump, and the Pentagon was afraid Trump would use the National Guard in a coup attempt.

John Aravosis

Nov 1

Blockbuster WashPost Story on the Insurrection

There’s a blockbuster story in Sunday’s Washington Post about how the FBI, and others, responded — or didn’t respond — to some pretty serious tips they received about the coming Insurrection. Justin Hendrix did a great series of tweets summarizing the best/worst parts of the story:

Justin Hendrix @justinhendrix

1/ Good morning. Yesterday the Washington Post published a very important report on January 6- before, during, and after. I reckon it's one of the most important accounts published anywhere to date. It is full of new reporting and detail. Warnings of violence before Jan. 6 precipitated the Capitol riotLaw enforcement agencies failed to heed mounting warnings of coming violence as Trump propelled his supporters to Washington in a last desperate attempt to overturn the election results.washingtonpost.com

In a nutshell, the FBI was warned, pretty directly, about what was going to happen and didn’t take the tips seriously. And FBI Director Christopher Wray and his staff didn’t want to upset Trump:

Justin Hendrix @justinhendrix

4/ We learn more about the FBI's mishandling of warnings, including confusion over how to deal with the volume of threats. And we learn here what has seemed obvious for months- FBI Director Christopher Wray was playing politics. This reeks of cowardice:

And, this I found really interesting, part of the reason the Pentagon didn’t send out the National Guard until hours into the Insurrection was because they were afraid that Trump would use the National Guard troops to stage a coup!

Justin Hendrix @justinhendrix

5/ This appears to again confirm the idea that senior military leaders feared putting the Guard on the ground because they worried then President Trump might try to use it as an instrument in the coup.

Trump’s corruption has real-world consequences. It helped not just create the Insurrection, but sustain it as well.

The Virginia Governor’s Race…

….Is close! Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe is running against Republican Glenn Youngkin, who’s more than a bit Trumpy, though he’s been keeping his distance from Trump, and refused to invite him to the state to campaign. That’s a good sign for Democrats — not necessarily for this race, but overall. If Republicans are afraid to be connected to Trump, then that means Democrats SHOULD be keep tying Republican candidates to Trump.

Beyond the fact that this race is way too close, and McAuliffe could lose if Virginia Dems don’t turn out in massive numbers, there’s also a momentum question. If Republicans win on Tuesday, it’s thought that this will give them a big psychological push going in 2022.

Infrastructure

From the beginning, I was never convinced that Senator Manchin even wanted an infrastructure bill. For Manchin and the House progressives to play a successful game of chicken, one side (or both) has to eventually be willing to blink. I worry that, in the end, Manchin doesn’t care if a bill ever passed, so he has no incentive to negotiate downwards from whatever demands he makes. As for Kyrsten Sinema, other than being completely bought off by someone having offered her a new job after she leaves Congress, I can’t come up with any rational reason for her behavior. What does she want? I doubt she even knows.

The Public Perception of Biden and the Dem Congress

Unlike many of my liberal brethren, I worry that Biden and the Democratic Congress are taking a real hit with the public. I think they’re both coming across as incompetent in a time of growing national concern over Covid and the economy. Now, I’m not saying either has been incompetent. Particularly with the congressional agenda, there are two people to blame for nothing getting done: Mitch McConnell and Joe Manchin.

Having said that, the appearance is that Dems are in disarray, and that Biden isn’t up to the job. On the latter, Biden isn’t the speaker he was in his younger days. He comes across as old, and somewhat confused — though I don’t think he’s confused at all. Nonetheless, perception/marketing is everything. And the message of late isn’t that Republicans are stymying progress — which they are — but rather, that Dems can’t get their act together. It also didn’t help that Republicans were 99% in lock-stop with Trump when they controlled the Congress. So the the contrast with Dems is striking — actual democracy at work! It’s messy. But it’s better than all the alternatives.

And I just saw on TV that Biden’s approval rating dropped in one poll to 42%. And in fact, Biden’s average approval rating, according to 538, is now 43%. It’s been dropping since the end of May. Keep in mind, that could also reflect disappointment by Democrats that: 1) Biden doesn’t get Manchin in line; 2) Doesn’t get House progressives in line; and/or 3) Has been awful at messaging (I’m with #3). Not that I’d “disapprove” of his job performance, but I wouldn’t give him an A either.

The History of Extremism and Polarization

I did a really interesting podcast this past week with Georgetown Prof. Thomas Zimmer about the history of authoritarianism in America and abroad, and whether (and how) we can survive Trumpism. It was a fascinating talk. Thomas is amazing. Definitely have a look: