Daily Digest |  |
- Were Minorities Disproportionately Impacted by COVID?
- Podcast: The 3WHH on CRT
- What Rep. John Thompson represents
- The Week in Pictures: Legos and Logos Edition
- This day in baseball history
| Were Minorities Disproportionately Impacted by COVID? Posted: 10 Jul 2021 12:42 PM PDT (John Hinderaker) The claim that covid impacted minority groups disproportionately has been ubiquitous for more than a year. But is it true? I decided to investigate, using data from my own state, Minnesota. What I found may surprise you. This article is from the July issue of Thinking Minnesota, which is now at the printer. The statistical work was done by my colleague Mitch Rolling, a master of the spread sheet. The claim that COVID-19 has disproportionately impacted people of color is often heard and rarely, if ever, disputed. It is one of many instances where politicians and activists identify "white privilege" and use that concept as a basis for policy. Here in Minnesota, it has been widely reported that minorities, and especially blacks, have suffered from COVID to an extent several times greater than whites. This claim, frequently repeated and never questioned in the press, has been the basis for potentially discriminatory actions by the Walz administration. But is the assertion of disproportionate impact true? In December 2020, a group of sociologists and others at the University of Minnesota produced a study that gave initial impetus to the idea that COVID devastated minority communities. Its sensational conclusion was that black Minnesotans died from COVID at a rate more than five times that of white Minnesotans, while latinos in Minnesota died from COVID at a rate more than four times that of whites, when adjusted for age. This startling conclusion garnered considerable publicity, all of it uncritical. Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota donated $5 million to the University of Minnesota to establish a Center for Antiracism Research and Health Equity. In announcing this grant, the university's press release said, "During the pandemic, Black Minnesotans are dying from COVID-19 at a rate five times higher than white Minnesotans when adjusted for age."
Can that claim possibly be true? The sociologists' study itself acknowledged obvious facts to the contrary:
So if whites represented 80 percent of Minnesotans and 82 percent of COVID deaths, as of the date of the study, how was COVID killing blacks and latinos at levels several times greater than whites? The authors of the University of Minnesota study did not base their analysis on death certificates that cite COVID as a cause of death, the normal measure of COVID mortality. Rather, they looked at total death statistics for the various racial groups. They counted total mortality from all causes, excluding only homicide, suicide and accident, for the months March through October of 2020, and compared those numbers with the average total mortality for each racial group in the years 2017 through 2019. These authors justified using total mortality data, rather than the Minnesota Department of Health's COVID statistics, on the assumption that members of minority groups who died of COVID were less likely than whites to be diagnosed with that disease. What evidence did the authors offer for that proposition? None. It was sheer speculation. Moreover, in 2020, 10.8 percent of all white deaths were attributed to COVID in the Department of Health's database, while 13.8 percent of black deaths were so attributed. This fact suggests that there is no merit to the theory that minority COVID deaths were somehow under-recorded. And that is only the beginning of the problems with the sociologists' report. Using the average of raw mortality numbers for 2017 through 2019 as a baseline for comparison with 2020 numbers sounds plausible, but it is a statistical trick that introduces a major error into the study. Minnesota's black population has been both increasing and aging at a faster rate than the white population. As a result, raw numbers of black deaths have been increasing much faster than white deaths, which were virtually flat for the period for 2017 through 2019. Specifically, during this three-year period, black deaths in Minnesota increased by 13 percent, while white deaths increased by only 1.9 percent. If those rates of increase in mortality are projected into 2020, and that number is used as a baseline against which to compare actual mortality, nearly one-third of the alleged increase in black mortality in 2020 — all of which the authors attribute to COVID — disappears. This is a good example of a statistical device that seems innocent, but badly biases a study's results.
The second source for the claim that minorities in Minnesota have been disproportionately impacted by COVID is the Department of Health itself. The MDH website aggressively promotes a racial angle to the state's COVID experience:
The Department of Health evidently views its COVID statistics as an instrument of activism, but the data themselves belie the Department's racial interpretation, particularly with respect to mortality. The Department's own numbers show that whites and Native Americans, not blacks, Hispanics or Asians, are over-represented as COVID victims. As of June 3, the MDH dashboard shows that 6,188 whites have died from COVID, representing 0.139 percent of the white population. Among "Latinx," the totals are 81 deaths, or 0.072 percent of that population. Among blacks, the numbers are 368 deaths or 0.100 percent of the black population. As for Asians, 288 have died with COVID listed on their death certificates, representing 0.101 percent of Minnesota's Asian population. And finally, 101 Native Americans have died from or with COVID, or 0.169 percent of that population. In other words, MDH's own records indicate that Native Americans and whites have disproportionately died from COVID, with blacks, Hispanics and Asians dying at lesser rates. In particular, whites, 80 percent of Minnesota's population, are now over-represented with 88 percent of COVID deaths. There is no mystery as to why this is true. Minnesota's white population skews older than most minority populations, and COVID is overwhelmingly a disease that is dangerous to the elderly, especially those who are already sick. This basic demographic fact explains why COVID has impacted white Minnesotans to a greater extent than minority groups whose populations are, on the average, younger. The data compiled by MDH obviously don't support the "racism" narrative favored by the Walz administration, so the Department of Health has promoted "age adjusted" COVID death calculations. On an "age adjusted" basis, MDH claims that all of the minority groups have higher COVID death rates than whites, with blacks at a ratio of about two and one-half to one. This "age adjustment" creates a hypothetical number of blacks (for example) who would have died if the age distribution of the black population were the same as the age distribution of the white population — according to the Department's statistical methods — but who did not, in fact, die. "Age adjusted" fatality numbers represent, at best, a contrary-to-fact hypothetical, and are not a competent basis on which to ground public policy. Despite the obvious flaws in the methods used both by university sociologists and the state Department of Health, and despite the undeniable fact that Minnesota's whites have died from COVID at a rate greater than their share of the population, the press has uncritically parroted these groups' claims of racial disparity. Worse, the Walz administration has apparently relied on claims of disparate impact in crafting its response to the epidemic. In particular, the administration may have engaged in race discrimination in the distribution of anti-COVID vaccines. Although its language is vague, an MDH guideline issued on March 3, 2021, describes "belonging to a community of color" as a risk factor that should be considered in prioritizing vaccine availability, and tells of a "vaccine distribution and engagement approach that prioritizes disproportionately impacted communities, settings and populations." The Walz administration has also prioritized sending vaccines to Federally Qualified Health Centers, as well as exempting those groups from the administration's 72-hour distribution goal, because they "are vaccinating community members from Black, Indigenous and Communities of Color at significantly higher rates than other sites." Further, someone who uses the MDH website to sign up to be vaccinated is asked questions about race, gender, and sexual orientation, but is not asked about real risk factors, like obesity, diabetes and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. How this information is used has not been publicly disclosed. If the Walz administration did engage in race discrimination in distributing the vaccine, it was, in all likelihood, illegal — a violation of the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection Clause. In a recent case, Greer's Ranch Cafe v. Isabella Casillas Guzman, the Court held that allegations of COVID disproportionately impacting women and minorities cannot justify race and sex discrimination in administering a government program. Race is not a risk factor for COVID. Apart from random variation, the reason for modest differences in COVID mortality among various groups is that the actual risk factors for the disease — age, of course, but also obesity, diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and so on — are not uniformly distributed through the population. The Walz administration's misguided obsession with race is one reason why it performed poorly at publicizing the real COVID risk factors and taking practical actions to protect the most vulnerable Minnesotans. Thinking Minnesota is a terrific conservative quarterly with a circulation now well over 100,000. Best of all, it is free! If you would like to subscribe, just email your name and mailing address to info@AmericanExperiment.com.     |
| Posted: 10 Jul 2021 11:53 AM PDT (Steven Hayward) Once upon a time, "CRT" stood for "cathode ray tube," sometimes known as "television," but also oscilloscopes, computer screens, some x-rays, and certain other technical devices designed for testing and calibration. Cathode ray tubes went the way of the Dodo bird quite some time ago, and nowadays CRT means something else: Critical Race Theory. There is one way in which today's CRT resembles the old tech CRTs—they both depend on a vacuum. Critical Race Theory depends on the vacuum of nihilism at the end of the day, as a close look at the most academic variants show. By listener demand, Steve and Lucretia explore the origins of CRT in law schools 40 years ago, try to separate the sense (a little) from the nonsense (a lot, most of it pernicious). We barely scratch the surface of this topic, but may return for more in future episodes. This episode also updates the latest in our series on "Who Shot Ashli Babbitt?", and we also take a brief detour to dump on ranked-choice voting, the latest Progressive bad idea that made a farce of New York City's most recent mayoral primary. Finally, we have some good laughs as the expense of the increasingly precious Atlantic monthly (a former magazine), which has become just another voice in the liberal media chorus singing the same dreary notes. And we even have a white wine recommendation for the hot days of mid-summer! Finally, the exit music this week is The Rascals old classic "People Got To Be Free," and if you listen to the lyrics, you'll understand why it would be on the banned list today among the CRT crowd (or "CRITTERS" as we have decided to call them). Note to listeners and readers: I’m going to be overseas the next two weekends, and not certain whether we’ll be able to record a 3WHH, so we may be on hiatus for a while. I will be recording a number of interviews overseas for the Power Line Classic podcast format. As usual, or even unusual, listen here, or from our hosts at Ricochet.   This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| What Rep. John Thompson represents Posted: 10 Jul 2021 06:09 AM PDT (Scott Johnson) After Ilhan Omar and Keith Ellison, the DFL’s John Thompson must be the most outrageous officeholder ever to disgrace public life in Minnesota. He rode his outrageous 2020 misconduct all the way to the Minnesota House of Representatives this past November. See the Alpha News archives on Thompson conveniently compiled here. Thompson represents something, all right, but it’s not exactly his St. Paul East Side constituents. Let’s see if we can figure out what it might be. Late this week the St. Paul Pioneer Press’s Mara Gottfried reported that Thompson was pulled over late in the wee hours on Sunday for not having a front license plate on his car. He handed the officer his Wisconsin driver's license. Wait, what? He not only doesn’t have a Minnesota driver’s license, he has never had one, and his driving privileges in Minnesota had been revoked in April 2019 for a failed child support obligation. The good news is that on Wednesday Thompson made good on the child support. Thompson told the Pioneer Press he never took out a Minnesota driver’s license, although he also had previously told the paper he's lived in St. Paul for 18 years. And yet the same month Thompson appeared on the ballot for election to the legislature last year he renewed his Wisconsin driver's license. Indeed, according to the Wisconsin Department of Transportation, Thompson has held a valid Wisconsin license since July 2000. Thompson renewed the license in 2005, 2012 and November 2020. The Pioneer Press’s Dave Orrick adds: “The address or addresses on Thompson's renewed and expired licenses are not public, but Wisconsin driver's licenses are only available to Wisconsin residents.” T There’s more. Minnesota law requires new residents to obtain a Minnesota driver's license within 60 days of residency. When did this guy become a Minnesota resident? Residency raises yet another issue. Minnesota law also imposes a six-month residency requirement on candidates for the legislature. A candidate must have lived in his district at least six months before election day. It’s all r-a-a-a-cism, of course, according to Thompson. “I thought we weren’t doing pretextual stops in this state, but we are,” Thompson said Tuesday outside the governor’s residence at an event marking five years since Philando Castile was fatally shot by a police officer in Falcon Heights. “We’re still getting ‘driving-while-Black’ tickets here in this state — as a matter of fact, in St. Paul. So let’s just call it what it is.” What is it? St. Paul Police Chief Todd Axtell disputes the charge of r-a-a-a-cism. Chief Axtell posted a statement on Facebook yesterday. Here it is in its entirety:
KSTP’s Tom Hauser is on the case (video below). The voluble John Thompson has suddenly gone silent. Hauser reported last night:
And that’s not all. Hauser makes this salient point:
Thompson is a liar and thug and hypocrite of epic proportions. Thompson charges the sergeant with a pretextual stop on account of Thompson’s race, but Thompson is the master of pretext. Among many other things, Thompson represents the use of alleged r-a-a-a-cism for pretextual purposes.   |
| The Week in Pictures: Legos and Logos Edition Posted: 10 Jul 2021 03:54 AM PDT (Steven Hayward) Without question the news item that federal investigators confiscated a U.S.Capitol Lego set from one of the January 6 protestors is peak nonsense. Our “betters” have abandoned logos for Legos, but that’s par for the course from a class of people who ingest our media emetics and suffer from full-blown logorrhea.
Headlines of the week:
 This would go a long way toward sorting out the gender confusions. . .  Also, probably best not to ask about the “pompatus.”
And finally. . .
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| Posted: 09 Jul 2021 09:15 PM PDT (Paul Mirengoff) In this series, I’ve been retracing Vida Blue’s historic 1971 season. In the last post about it, I covered a late May game at Fenway Park that John and I attended in which Blue picked up his second loss of the season following an amazing ten game winning streak. After that setback, Blue started another streak. He won his next six starts before losing against Minnesota on June 29. In his next start, on July 4, he defeated the Angels. Entering play on July 9, just a little bit past the halfway mark of the season, Blue’s record was 17-3. His ERA was 1.51. He had 17 complete games and six shutouts. Blue had started 21 games, again in just over half a season. Manager Dick Williams was working him hard. Or maybe it was the owner, Charlie Finley. He had predicted big attendance numbers when he moved the A’s from Kansas City to Oakland. They had not materialized. Not even close. In Blue, Finley saw a remedy. During an eight-day June homestand, Blue was only scheduled to pitch one game. So management bumped him ahead of Catfish Hunter for a second start. This had the added virtue of moving Blue off of a scheduled start later in the month on bat day. Starting the phenom on the day of a big promotion was a waste. He was his own promotion. Oakland averaged 23,000 fans, home and road, when Blue pitched in 1971. When he didn’t pitch, the A’s averaged 10,000. Astoundingly, one out of every 12 American league tickets sold that year was for a game Vida Blue started.* Blue’s Friday July 9 start was in Anaheim before a crowd of 23,000, the average for his games. The crowd got its money’s worth. Blue pitched 11 innings. He allowed seven hits, no walks, and stuck out 17. No Angel scored. Unfortunately for Oakland, the Angels’ lefty, Rudy May, was just about as good. He pitched 12 innings of hitless ball, giving up only three hits, but walking six. May struck out 13. Blue was relieved by a future Hall of Famer, though at the time no could have imagined Rollie Fingers being enshrined at Cooperstown. Like Blue, Fingers was fantastic on this day. In seven innings, he gave up no runs and just two hits. He walked one batter and struck out seven. But the A’s couldn’t score against the Angels’ reliever, veteran Eddie Fisher. They managed only two hits and two walks in five innings against the knuckleballer. With so few hits by both teams, there were very few innings in which either seriously threatened to score. The Angels had the best opportunity when, in the sixth inning, two hits put runners on second and third with only one out. But Blue bore down and struck out Ken Berry and Tony Conigliaro to end the threat. Mel Queen took over from Fisher in the bottom of the 18th. He set the A’s down in order in that frame and in the 19th, as well. Fingers finally exited for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 18th. Bobby Locker, a former teammate of Fisher in the White Sox bullpen, came on to pitch the 19th. Berry greeted him with a single and with two out, a Ken McMullen single sent Berry to third. With left-handed hitting Jim Spencer coming up, Williams pulled Locker and brought in his ace lefty, Darold Knowles. Spencer fanned. Knowles also set the Angels down in order in the top of the 20th inning. Curt Blefary led off the bottom of the 20th for Oakland. Queen hit him with a pitch. Mike Epstein then popped out, but Dick Green singled Blefary to second. Knowles was due up next. Williams was out of position players with whom to pinch hit. So he sent Catfish Hunter, a good hitter for a pitcher, to the plate. Hunter struck out. That left it up to Angel Mangual, the starting center fielder against lefties (in a platoon with Rick Monday). Queen was a righty, but Mangual ended the affair anyway with an opposite field single. Time of the game: 5 hours and 5 minutes. Number of strikeouts: 43. But for the fact that baseball has effectively legislated 20 inning games out of existence, you would think, with so many strikeouts, that the game was played this season, not fifty years ago on this date in baseball history. *This information on Blue’s effect on attendance comes from Jason Turbow in his excellent book Dynastic, Bombastic, Fantastic: Reggie, Rollie, Catfish and Charlie Finley’s Swingin’ A’s.   |
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