Tuesday, 1 June 2021

Rays Report | We're heading into summer with MLB's hottest team

The Rays were supposed to be good, but these are some ridiculous stats
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Tuesday, June 1, 2021
 
[MENGSHIN LIN | Times]
Strange happenings for the best team in baseball
And so Memorial Day ended with Tampa Bay sporting the best record in the majors.

Considering the Rays were American League champions and had the AL’s best record in the shortened 2020 season, this shouldn’t be a huge surprise. What is a little perplexing is how the Rays have pulled it off.

It’s not just that Tampa Bay was a .500 team through 38 games, or that Nick Anderson hasn’t pitched an inning or that they’ve only gotten a combined six starts from Chris Archer and Michael Wacha.

No, there have been some true I-wasn’t-expecting-that developments through the first one-third of the season.

Just consider:

 The Rays have outscored the Yankees. Not just by a little but by a margin of 273-202. You have to understand how unusual that is. Even when the Rays finished with the best record in 2020, even when they won 96 games in 2019, even when the Yankees finished in fourth place, New York still outscored Tampa Bay. The last time the Rays finished a season with more runs than the Yankees was 2013.

 The Yankees have gotten better pitching than the Rays. Yeah, this is the flip side. Tampa Bay is built around run prevention. It is usually the main reason the Rays are able to contend. And yet the Yankees have allowed only 194 runs this season and the Rays have given up 210. Go figure.

 Rays catchers have the best combined WAR in the American League, according to baseballreference.com calculations. Catching has been an offensive black hole for several seasons in Tampa Bay. In this same category, the Rays ranked 13 out of 15 teams in the AL in 2020. Yet Mike Zunino’s power surge and Francisco Mejia’s consistency have been a boon to the offense.

 Critics (including me) cringed when the Rays decided not to pick up the $15 million option on 37-year-old Charlie Morton’s contract. Instead, the Rays spent $12 million signing Wacha, Archer and Rich Hill. Wacha and Archer have been disappointments, but Hill has more than made up for their shortcomings. Between them, Hill, Wacha and Archer have thrown 91 innings and are 5-4 with a 4.14 ERA. Morton has thrown 57 innings and is 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA. By redistributing Morton’s salary, the Rays have gotten more innings, more versatility and saved $3 million while getting similar results.

 The Rays have a 35-20 record, and have zero home runs from a first baseman. Zero! The pitching staffs of Milwaukee, Atlanta, St. Louis and Anaheim have all hit more home runs than Tampa Bay first basemen. (Ji-Man Choi has two homers, but both came as a designated hitter. Yandy Diaz and Yoshi Tsutsugo have yet to homer in 2021.

 Joey Wendle went into Memorial Day second in the AL in doubles with 16. Now, I like Joey Wendle. You like Joey Wendle. But you cannot tell me you expected Wendle to be near the lead league in doubles after 55 games. He hit nine doubles last season in a 60-game season.
 
 [Associated Press]
Intriguing numbers in a lawsuit and other links
• A group of limited partners have sued Rays owner Stu Sternberg, and are seeking to have him removed from power. The lawsuit accuses Sternberg of deceiving partners and manipulating the team’s books to keep them from earning dividends. The Rays say the suit has no merit. However it turns out, the suit included some financial numbers that could give fans a clearer picture of the team’s revenues if it ever goes to court.

• While sidelined with an arm injury, Archer left the team for a couple of weeks to return home and be at his mother’s bedside before she passed. Archer spoke eloquently about the experience this week and beat writer Marc Topkin has the details.

• Tommy Pham has not had an easy time in San Diego since being traded by the Rays. He struggled at the plate last season, and then was stabbed in a violent offseason incident. This Fangraphs piece suggests fortune might finally be turning in Pham’s direction.

• Baseball is looking into all sorts of radical ideas to inject more offense into the game, but the solution could be to enforce the rules against pitchers doctoring baseballs. From Los Angeles to St. Louis to Minnesota, there have been whispers and accusations about foreign substances used to increase spin rates. Here’s a Philadelphia Inquirer story where catcher J.T. Realmuto offers solutions. 
 
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[IVY CEBALLO  | Times]
Unheralded and nearly unbeatable pitcher
• It’s easy to overlook because it’s been spread out over two seasons and because about half of his appearances have been as a bulk pitcher, but Josh Fleming has gone 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA in his first 16 big-league appearances. For context, Doc Gooden went 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA in his first 16 starts. I’m not remotely suggesting Fleming has been as dominant as a young Gooden. I’m just saying Fleming deserves a little national love.

• The Padres went 13-3 from May 14-30. Two of the three losses came on days when Blake Snell started. Snell has a 5.55 ERA with a league-leading 31 walks in 47 innings.

• On the other hand, Willy Adames has hit .324 with two home runs and nine RBI in his first 10 games with the Brewers. Considering his home/road splits and difficulties hitting in Tropicana Field, this trade could end up being the best thing to happen to Adames. 

• It’s not your imagination. The Rays have more plate appearances without putting the ball in play than any other team in the majors. With 27.5 percent of their plate appearances ending in strikeouts and 10 percent in walks, more than one out of every three at-bats ends with the ball in the catcher’s mitt.

Contact John Romano at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.
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