Tuesday, 11 May 2021

Tick, tock: The clock is ticking on Biden's legislative agenda

Note to our loyal readers: Please consider subscribing for $5 a month, or $50 a year, to help me grow this newsletter as a resource for anyone who cares about changing the world. Many thanks for helping keep CyberDisobedience ad-free! Enjoy. JOHN

Tick, tock: The clock is ticking on Biden's legislative agenda

As Democrats have only a one-vote majority in the Senate, and could lose the House in 2022, Biden may only have a matter of months to get his legislative agenda passed.

John Aravosis

May 11

The clock is ticking on the Biden agenda.

Let me take you back to 2009. In the early months of the Obama administration, I raised quite a fuss about President Obama slow-walking his gay rights promises, on Don’t Ask Don’t Tell in particular.

The problem wasn’t that Obama was bad on the issues — he was great! The problem was that a lot of us (rightly, in hindsight) thought Democrats would lose the House in 2010, and thus any chance to enact Obama’s legislative agenda. And we did lose the House.

But fortunately for us, after some considerable pressure, President Obama worked with Congress in 2010 to lift the ban on gays serving in the military, all before the House changed hands.

Fast forward to 2021.

So far, so good for Biden. The economy is soaring, the virus is increasingly at bay. But most of Biden’s biggest, sexiest legislative initiatives, are still on the horizon: e.g., infrastructure, expanding Obamacare, voting rights, climate change, and replacing new Supreme Court justices (which requires Senate confirmation.

And there is real concern that we could lose the House in 2022, or even the Senate. And that won’t just kill Biden’s legislative agenda, but it also affects Biden’s ability to appoint any nominees at all.

We interviewed Democratic strategist Paul Begala yesterday on our podcast. Paul is brilliant, and a great guy — you always learn something talking to him. We get into this issue in our talk. I highly recommend you check out the podcast.

During our chat, Paul said he thinks Biden has until August to get the big legislative stuff done, because after August people start focusing on next year’s mid-term election, and legislating grinds to a halt as partisan tempers flare, and individual members start worrying about their (re)elections.

Paul mentioned this in the context of Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who is holding up much of Biden’s agenda, demanding that Biden find some Republicans to get on board, even though the GOP is refusing to compromise on anything. (I just emailed Paul to ask him why the August curse, as it were, would impact us so long as we have the majority, and can get Manchin and Sinema on board. I’ll update this post when he gets back to me.)

My bigger concern is that we have a Senate majority of one. One Senator dies, or steps down for health reasons or scandal, from the wrong state, and we get a Republican who swings the majority back to McConnell.

And Paul just got back to me, and basically backs up what I wrote above. Namely, that we probably have the House and Senate majorities until the end of 2022, but a single death could cost us the Senate before that. And regardless, the closer we get to the election, the more risk-averse Democrats will become. So Paul thinks we need to push like crazy to get a major jobs/infrastructure/climate package through by the August recess this year.

Which is why we should legislate as if our majority will be short-lived. It’s also why Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer, an 82-year-old appointed by Bill Clinton, should step down immediately, and let Biden appoint his replacement pronto. It was a huge mistake, we now know, for RBG not to step down during the Obama administration. Let’s not make that same mistake again.

Other Interesting Stuff

A few other things in the news, and to make you smile.

Howl-worthy

Face The Nation @FaceTheNation

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) likens GOP to “Titanic”: “We’re in the middle of this slow sink. We have a band playing on the deck, telling everybody it’s fine, and meanwhile Donald Trump’s running around, trying to find women’s clothing and get on the first lifeboat.”

Kinzinger warned McCarthy about the Insurrection

GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger says he warned Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy, days before the January 6th Insurrection that the GOP’s embrace of the Big Lie would lead to violence. McCarthy ignored Kinzinger’s warning, and five people died.