| [JED JACOBSOHN | Associated Press] |
| Making the case for Willy Adames at shortstop |
The minor-league season is underway, which means Willy Adames is under the microscope.
Everything the Rays shortstop does — or doesn’t do — will now be measured against the progress Wander Franco is making at Triple-A Durham. Hit two homers on a seven-game road trip to Anaheim and Oakland? Yeah, well, Franco hit two homers in his first four games with the Bulls.
It’s not fair, it’s not really comparable, and it’s likely not the way the Rays front office is viewing the situation. But Franco has been the No. 1 prospect in the game for two years, and there’s a whole lot of Tampa Bay fans tired of waiting for his arrival.
There’s no doubt Franco is close to being Major League-ready. It’s just a matter of deciding the optimal time for promotion.
And there’s a whole lot of leeway in that decision.
It’s not just a question of whether Franco can handle big-league pitching, it also involves service time, how Tampa Bay’s season is going and where Franco fits in the lineup.
Because, like it or not, Adames is one of the better shortstops in the majors. He may not be in a class with Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, Trevor Story, Francisco Lindor and Tim Anderson, but he’s definitely in that next tier of shortstops.
Since the start of the 2019 season, baseballreference.com’s WAR has Adames as the No. 8 shortstop in the game. Fangraphs.com’s WAR rating isn’t as strong — he’s No. 13 on that list — but that’s still in the top half of the majors.
Franco will eventually be a better player than Adames, but it’s not a given that he is right now. So do the Rays bring Franco up and move him to a different position? In his first five games at Durham, Franco has had three starts at shortstop and two at second base. He also played third base in spring training.
The only problem with that scenario is second baseman Brandon Lowe was Tampa Bay’s most valuable player in 2020, and Joey Wendle has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter in 2021 at third base.
Adames, meanwhile, has struggled offensively in the first six weeks of the season. While trying to become more of a power hitter, he’s dramatically adjusted the launch angle of his swing. For the first three seasons of his career, his launch angle was below 12. This season, it’s at 22.5.
The results have been mixed. According to StatCast numbers, he’s hitting the ball on the barrel more than any other Tampa Bay player and he trails only Randy Arozarena in the percentage of hard-hit balls. The hard-hit balls are somewhat negated, however, by an exceedingly high whiff rate.
He’s been practically helpless against breaking pitches and off-speed pitches, and pitchers have started figuring that out. The number of fastballs he’s seen has dropped noticeably in the past two weeks.
“I’m still making some adjustments on that. Sometimes I feel like I’m (upper-cutting) too much,” Adames said. “Trying to find that balance where I don’t go too far and hit the ball straight up. I really don’t like hitting ground balls to shortstop and third so I’m trying to eliminate that and trying to hit the ball to the gaps.”
If you watched Sunday’s 4-3 victory against Oakland, you know Adames delivered the big blow with a three-run homer. You may have also noticed he crushed a change-up, only his second hit of the season on an off-speed pitch.
If Adames is starting to adjust his new swing to off-speed and breaking pitches, it could make that Franco decision even more complicated for the Rays. |
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