Friday, 30 April 2021

POLITICO

POLITICO

Europe’s economy hit by coronavirus restrictions in early 2021

Posted: 30 Apr 2021 03:19 AM PDT

FRANKFURT — Europe’s economy contracted in the first quarter of the year as a fresh wave of coronavirus outbreaks forced countries across the region into new lockdowns.

Preliminary Eurostat data showed the eurozone’s GDP contracted by 0.6 percent on the quarter in the first three months of the year, while the EU contracted by 0.4 percent over the same period. The weak start to 2021 follows a contraction of 0.7 percent in the eurozone and 0.5 percent in the EU in the final quarter of 2020, when the second wave of the coronavirus washed over the Continent.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 1.8 percent in the euro area and by 1.7 percent in the EU in the first quarter of 2020 after contracting 4.9 percent in the euro area and 4.6 percent in the EU in the previous quarter, the release showed.

“Now it is also official. The euro area economy slipped back into recession in the winter half-year 2020/21,” said Commerzbank economist Christoph Weil after the release of the data. “But a strong recovery should soon begin.”

Earlier this month, the European Central Bank said that incoming economic data, surveys, and high-frequency indicators pointed to a resumption of growth in the second quarter.

The ECB expects the eurozone to post a strong rebound in the second half of this year as the coronavirus vaccination campaign progresses and the region can gradually lift lockdown measures. The eurozone is expected to grow by 4 percent this year and 4.1 percent in 2022, according to March's projections.

The slightly older European Commission forecasts put eurozone growth at 3.8 percent for this year and next while projecting growth for the European Union as a whole of 3.7 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2022.

Still, Friday’s data confirms that Europe is lagging significantly behind the United States, which earlier this week reported robust growth at the start of this year.

In a separate release, Eurostat also reported eurozone annual inflation was seen rising 1.6 percent in April, marking the sharpest rise in two years. Price increases were driven by a 10.3 percent surge in energy prices. Most economists and policymakers expected a significant increase in price pressure this year, possibly even approaching the ECB’s rate of just below 2 percent, to remain temporary and ease again in 2022.

This article is part of POLITICO's premium policy service: Pro Financial Services. From the eurozone, banking union, CMU, and more, our specialized journalists keep you on top of the topics driving the Financial Services policy agenda. Email pro@politico.eu for a complimentary trial.

What the next Madrid parliament will look like

Posted: 30 Apr 2021 02:38 AM PDT

HP zoning

What the next Welsh parliament will look like

Posted: 30 Apr 2021 02:36 AM PDT

HP zoning

What the next Scottish parliament will look like

Posted: 30 Apr 2021 02:34 AM PDT

HP zoning

Dutch government allows limited live audience to Eurovision shows

Posted: 30 Apr 2021 12:56 AM PDT

This year’s Eurovision song contest, scheduled from May 18 to May 22, is rising like a phoenix as it will be held in front of a limited number of live fans in Rotterdam, the organizers announced on Thursday following a decision from the Dutch government.

A maximum of 3,500 spectators will be allowed in the Ahoy Arena to watch one of the nine Eurovision shows: six rehearsals, two semi-finals and the final. This is around 20 percent of the usual capacity of the venue. Tickets are all going to fans who couldn’t attend the canceled 2020 contest.

The shows will be part of a study conducted by the Dutch Fieldlab Events program, which aims “to test various elements within the framework of health and safety that can provide insight into the possibility of easier limitations to event organisers.” Measures will include a negative coronavirus test to enter, as well as questions about symptoms asked through an app. The audience’s arrival will be staggered, they will all be seated and wear masks when not in their seats.

“Delegations are considerably smaller and most journalists will follow the Eurovision Song Contest from home this year in an online press center,” said Eurovision’s Executive Producer Sietse Bakker.

A test concert held in Barcelona last month and attended by almost 5,000 people showed no sign of contagion between attendees, the organizers announced this week.

Boris Johnson’s phone number online for years

Posted: 30 Apr 2021 12:24 AM PDT

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s personal mobile phone number has been available on the internet for years, after being included in a 2006 press release during his time on the opposition frontbench, British gossip newsletter Popbitch reported on Thursday.

London Playbook confirmed the press release was still online and the number was indeed the prime minister’s, though as of Friday morning it was unclear whether Johnson still used it. “This person’s phone is switched off. Please try later or send a text,” a female voice responded upon calling.

The news has national security implications, as it could expose the prime minister to threats such as SMS phishing. “This is extremely worrying with massive security implications," said Labour MP Kevan Jones, a member of the intelligence and security committee and a former defense minister.  "It needs to be investigated as a matter of urgency … It leaves the prime minister very vulnerable."

With a politician’s phone number, a malicious actor could send messages with links that would allow their mobile to be hacked, the former security official said, which could grant access to apps including emails. A hacker could also intercept messages or pose as the sender to contact others. It would also be easier to geolocate the phone.

But one former senior government security official said the revelations aren’t that serious, as hostile states like Russia and China are already likely to be able to gain access to high-profile politicians’ phone numbers in other ways, and people in government are told to treat their phones as if they were already compromised.

POLITICO also found at least three other Cabinet ministers’ personal mobile phone numbers online.

Downing Street declined to comment.

The problem is not uniquely British. European officials‘ phone numbers have recently circulated online as a result of a massive Facebook data leak, with European Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders, Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel and multiple French ministers among those affected.

Want more analysis from POLITICO? POLITICO Pro is our premium intelligence service for professionals. From financial services to trade, technology, cybersecurity and more, Pro delivers real time intelligence, deep insight and breaking scoops you need to keep one step ahead. Email pro@politico.eu to request a complimentary trial.

How the Scottish National Party became the only show in town

Posted: 29 Apr 2021 10:18 PM PDT

LONDON — The history of the past decade has been the history of political earthquakes — but few countries have been shaken quite like Scotland.

Rewind 15 years and Scottish nationalism was a relatively fringe pursuit. The Scottish National Party (SNP) was stuck in opposition in Scotland’s devolved assembly, just as it had been ever since the Parliament was created in 1999. Support for independence was a long way off any kind of majority. The party had never sent more than a large handful of MPs to Westminster.

Next week Scottish voters go to the polls and — barring a miracle — will elect the fourth successive SNP government at Holyrood, in yet another landslide victory for leader Nicola Sturgeon. The party holds almost every Scottish seat at Westminster, and opinion polls show support for independence is nudging toward a majority view at around — or just beyond — 50 percent.

SCOTLAND ELECTION POLL OF POLLS (CONSTITUENCY VOTE)


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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

On this week’s Westminster Insider podcast, POLITICO’s Jack Blanchard looks back at the history of the Scottish nationalist movement, and explains how it shifted from a fringe pursuit to perhaps the majority view in Scotland.

“I would say the 1990s were the decade where the SNP became relevant,” says Alex Salmond, who — funnily enough — became party leader in 1990. “And basically the fundamental decision that the SNP made under my first term leadership was to start assuming a place in the social and economic spectrum. So instead of just saying, ‘we’re on the side of Scotland,’ be prepared to take sides within Scotland … and therefore building up its credentials as a social democratic party, one that could be relied on by groups in Scotland to defend their interests.”

The creation of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 gave the SNP and Salmond an electoral focus. Eight years later they were in power, beating the Scottish Labour Party by just a single seat. Scottish Labour was hamstrung by the increasing unpopularity of the Labour government in Westminster, particularly in the aftermath of the Iraq war.

“Alex became the most significant Westminster opponent of the war,” says Jack McConnell, Labour first minister of Scotland until his party’s defeat of 2007. “It give him a big, big platform. The Labour government was having problems with scandals and so on, and again, the SNP became very prominent in opposition to some of those scandals. So they went from being in a pretty hopeless position, very quickly — in the course of 12 months — they moved up in the polls.”

Salmond capitalized on the platform the first ministership offered, and won a further victory in 2011 — this time a landslide, giving him the authority to demand an independence referendum. And although that was narrowly defeated in 2014, support for independence has only solidified — especially in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, and the chaos in Westminster which followed.

“There’s been a huge structural change,” says Torcuil Crichton, a veteran Daily Record journalist who has covered politics for the past 20 years. “The earthquake of 2014, the 55/45 split [in the independence referendum] in Scotland, which came about as a result, I think, of the deeper earthquake of the mistrust in politics and the rise of identity politics — that’s a structural change that's there for a long time to come. There’s no sign of people who voted ‘yes’ to independence changing their minds very much … Everything that happens in Scotland is seen through the prism of independence.”

Salmond, who has now left the SNP in acrimony following allegations about his personal conduct — all of which he denies — is running for a separate pro-independence party, Alba, in next week’s election.

He insists the case for an independent Scotland is stronger than ever and denies the harsh realities of Brexit — which would require some sort of border between Scotland and England were Scotland to re-join the EU — have wrecked his chances of success.

SCOTLAND ELECTION POLL OF POLLS (REGIONAL LIST VOTE)


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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

“You don’t have to have a hard border between England and Scotland,” he says. “Firstly, there won’t be a people border — I mean, that’s just stupid. The Common Travel Area [between the nations of the U.K. and Ireland] was initiated in 1922 … So we’re not talking about borders for people. But there will be some form of administrative border if Scotland goes back into the European Union.”

His immediate solution for Scotland would be to rejoin the EU’s single market via the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and then to agree a customs union with what remains of the U.K.

“You can get back into EFTA in weeks,” he insists. “And then through EFTA [join] the European Economic Area, which will take a bit longer — but not that long. And you can offer a customs union with the rest of the U.K., which should be attractive to England, given that [in terms of] manufactured goods they sell far more to Scotland than Scotland sells to them.

“So that would soften the border administratively, but a sort of border it is going to be. And you cannot just wish it away, unless, of course, you want Scotland to stay part of a U.K. trading bloc, and shut out of other trading blocs. I think that would be very foolish, because the U.K.’s decision to leave the single market place is the greatest act of self-destruction of any major countries in the post-war period.”

A short history of Scottish separatism

Posted: 29 Apr 2021 07:40 PM PDT

Listen on

With the Scottish parliament election less than a week away, Jack Blanchard looks back at the history of the Scottish nationalist movement and explains how it shifted from a fringe pursuit to perhaps the majority view in Scotland.

Former First Ministers Alex Salmond and Jack McConnell — who between them ran the Scottish government for more than 13 years — discuss the collapse of Scottish Labour in the mid 2000s and the extraordinary rise of the SNP. Scottish Cabinet Minister Mike Russell explains what first attracted him to the nationalist movement in the 1970s, while independence campaigner and columnist Lesley Riddoch talks about her own conversion to the cause ahead of the 2014 referendum. Historian Dr. Ben Jackson discusses the movement’s early struggles and the development of nationalist thought, while the Daily Record’s Torcuil Crichton analyzes the cultural and global shifts behind the SNP’s march to power.

Everyone loves Germany’s Greens (for now)

Posted: 29 Apr 2021 07:06 PM PDT

BERLIN — Germany's Greens are riding high, but are they for real? 

Just a week after choosing their candidate for chancellor — party co-leader Annalena Baerbock — the Greens' poll numbers are on fire. In some surveys, the party has even supplanted the Christian Democrats, the center-right bloc that has governed Germany under Angela Merkel for the past 16 years. 

If the Greens can sustain that momentum until election day in September, they will likely lead the next government — a political earthquake that would reverberate across the Continent.  

Yet all honeymoons end, sometimes in tears. Why, many ask, should Germans' infatuation with the Greens be any different? The stock Green response is that their success isn't a fluke. 

"Our strength isn't ephemeral, we've built it over months and years," said Franziska Brantner, a senior Green MP and Baerbock confidante who focuses on European affairs. 

While that may sound like a hollow boast, it isn't.

GERMANY NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS


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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

A reminder of just how successful the Greens' long game has been came Thursday when Germany's highest court threw out the government's 2019 environmental law for not being ambitious enough. The case was brought by a coalition of environmental groups endorsed by the Greens. 

The court's sweeping ruling — which will effectively force the government to rewrite its environmental code — would be considered an audacious attempt to legislate from the bench in many countries; in Germany, the decision was cheered, even by members of government responsible for the original law. 

The ruling was not just "epoch-making," but "great and significant," tweeted Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, a Merkel ally. Altmaier then tussled with Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, over which government coalition partner was to blame for the shoddy legislation that the court declared “unconstitutional.”    

The decision illustrates just how mainstream Green ideas have become and why the party that has warned against the perils of climate change for decades has become such a political force. 

And yet, while there's no question that the Greens have captured the zeitgeist with their core mission, a number of their other priorities remain well outside the political mainstream. 

For any German who has supported Merkel's centrist course, the Greens' new "Manifesto of Principles," passed at a convention in November, will make for interesting reading. In other parties, such documents are often dismissed as little more than a catalog of empty promises. But the Green base is different — it expects party leaders to deliver. 

The manifesto calls, among other things, for "a Germany free of nuclear weapons and thus a swift end to nuclear participation." Translation: the U.S. needs to get its nukes out of Germany. 

Though Baerbock subsequently made clear she doesn't expect that to happen overnight, the goal itself is controversial because it would require removing the foundation of the security umbrella that has protected Germany for decades. The 120-page manifesto makes no mention of the United States, the country generally seen as the guarantor of German defense, but it does mention NATO, which it describes as in "deep crisis."   

The solution to NATO's problems is not, in the Greens' view, for Germany to meet its obligations to the alliance by fulfilling a pledge that all members have made to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. Instead, they favor a "European" solution. 

"We're not in favor of national goals when it comes to European defense," Brantner said. "It's an inherent contradiction to say we want a European security policy and then for everyone to do something on a national basis. That makes no sense."

Instead, Brantner said Germany should follow France's lead in pursuing President Emmanuel Macron's vision for "European sovereignty."

"NATO is not the priority," she added. 

Defense policy isn't the only issue on which the Greens are going against the grain. 

On the politically dicey issue of migration, the party doesn't just want to end the tough asylum policies implemented by Germany's current government; it wants rich countries like Germany that have contributed to climate change to compensate poorer countries that are suffering the effects of it, including by easing outward migration. 

"States that historically and currently emit the majority of climate-damaging gases must participate in a global compensation of climate impacts, damages and losses as well as in the creation of safe and dignified migration routes," the party program says. 

As for the EU's refugee deal with Turkey (under which Ankara agreed to take in millions of refugees in return for billions of euros), the Greens aren't fans.  

"The possibility of fleeing and seeking protection in Germany and Europe must not be made more difficult through cooperation with third countries, and cooperation must not lead to human rights violations," the manifesto states.  

The Greens' migration policies may be noble in spirit, but it's far from clear whether they are politically viable in a country where recent battles over migration have redrawn the political landscape, spawning one of the Continent’s most virulent far-right parties. 

So far, tough questions about how the Greens plan to put their ambitious program into action have been largely missing from the public debate.  

That's mainly because the German press has been too busy praising them. 

In the days after the Greens gave Baerbock the nod for the chancellor run, she was seemingly everywhere, on magazine covers, on talkshows and the nightly news. 

While that was to be expected, the gauzy tone of the coverage wasn't. 

"Finally something different," Der Stern declared in green letters under a cover photo of Baerbock in a black leather jacket. "One feels her excitement," the weekly told readers. The generally more critical Der Spiegel pictured Baerbock, hands on her hips, under the headline "The woman for all contingencies."  

The apex of Baerbock-mania came during her first television interview after her nomination. At the end of the live discussion, the two journalists who peppered her with softball questions for 45 minutes were so excited that they did something one usually only sees on talent shows: They broke into applause. 

Some of the enthusiasm for the Greens might be driven by exasperation with the center right over its shambolic process to elect a candidate for the chancellor race. That would explain the Greens' sudden surge in the polls. 

Whatever the cause, the German media's love affair with the Greens is bound to wane as the campaign progresses. Political popularity inevitably triggers scrutiny. 

When it arrives, Baerbock will have to prove her substance runs deeper than a glossy magazine cover.  

Nette Nöstlinger contributed reporting.

UK Tories aim to chip away at ‘red wall’ in key electoral test for Boris Johnson

Posted: 29 Apr 2021 07:04 PM PDT

HARTLEPOOL, England — The damage done to Labour’s “red wall” was the dominant story of the 2019 U.K. election — now the Tories are hoping to take another chip out of it.

The moniker refers to a stripe of Brexit-voting deindustrialized towns across the Midlands and the North which had been Labour strongholds for generations but switched their support to the Tories to help give Prime Minister Boris Johnson his landslide election victory in December 2019. 

Less than two years later, the country is watching to see if Hartlepool, which matches many of its neighbors' characteristics but held out stubbornly last time, will follow suit. The first by-election of this parliamentary session, to be held on May 6, was prompted by the resignation of the previous Labour MP, Mike Hill, amid sexual harassment allegations, which he denies.

It was clear to see from walking through the town which party feels it has more at stake. There were posters of Labour candidate Dr Paul Williams, beaming in his scrubs, pinned up by the bus stop near the main shopping street and flyers with his name plastered the pavement.

On the face of it Williams has several advantages. He's an NHS doctor who previously served as an MP for nearby Stockton, who finds himself defending a historic Labour stronghold in a by-election after 11 years of Conservative government. 

Yet he faces an uphill struggle. A group of men in their 70s sitting in the civic square at lunchtime referred to him variously as "the doctor," which is the intended effect of the posters, and "the Remainer," which definitely is not. 

One of them even mentioned the number of times Williams broke the Labour Party whip as an MP in an attempt to "block Brexit," adding that Labour "doesn't listen." The conversation quickly moved from Williams to Sir Keir Starmer, the leader who is meant to be reinventing his party to be more in line with the values of English towns like Hartlepool.

Referring to a recent incident in which Starmer was chased out of a pub on the campaign trail, one man said: "I don't think he'd be welcome in very many pubs round here." 

More than Brexit

Williams himself insisted this election is not about Brexit. "Occasionally it comes up, but it's no longer an issue of Leave or Remain. It feels like everyone's united now in that we want to make a success of it."

As for the Labour leader, Williams acknowledged "people haven’t gotten to know [Starmer] very well in the last year," which he put down to COVID restrictions. He said: "There was a bit of an assumption that because he was from the south, he must’ve had some kind of privileged upbringing, but when he came here he listened really carefully to people and he made a strong, positive connection."

Williams would prefer to focus on NHS pay and jobs. He is skeptical of the impact that various announcements made by the chancellor in his latest budget will have in the area, and by extension the government's entire "leveling up" agenda. 

An expansion of the Treasury in Darlington will be seen as "another area that’s getting something that Hartlepool isn’t," Williams argued, adding that the area was treated as "an afterthought" in plans for a freeport on Teesside. 

Eye-catching Tory investments in the North East have left him treading a difficult path, and this is not lost on voters. A lifelong Labour voter confessed he is "wavering for the first time" because he sees the infrastructure projects springing up around Hartlepool and fears the town being "left out on a limb."

Out on a limb describes Hartlepool in more ways than one. Geographically, it hangs on the upper lip of the Tees and looks straight out to sea: no beach, no pier. It is part of the official Tees Valley region, but does not see itself as part of Teesside. The slogan on the welcome sign — "Hartlepool: A marina and so much more" — poses more questions than it answers.

It is not wholly deindustrialized while it is home to the Liberty Steel pipe plant, although the factory is now at risk as part of Sanjeev Gupta's empire. Offshore wind manufacturing is set to join chemical processing as one of the big local industries, but it is still a world away from the era when steelmaking was the heart of the Teesside economy.

In other ways, it exemplifies the challenge the Conservatives have set themselves under the slogan of leveling up, suffering from higher-than-average economic inactivity, child poverty, obesity and wage stagnation.

Monkey hangers

Politically, it has marched to the beat of its own drum in more subtle ways than the scorecard of steady Labour representation since 1974 would suggest. The constituency has a strong tradition of independent challengers in parliamentary elections, an unusually high number of independent councillors and once elected the local football mascot — or at least the man inside it — as mayor. (Called H’angus, the monkey mascot recalls another eccentric episode during the Napoleonic Wars in which the town hanged the simian survivor of a shipwreck believing it to be a French spy.)

When the constituency bucked the trend in 2019 and stayed red, Labour owed its victory in no small part to the Brexit Party — formerly UKIP — which has long enjoyed strong local support and sucked up 10,000 votes.

If Labour manage to hold on again, they will inevitably rely on the votes of those like the man on a mobility scooter who stopped when he saw Williams and said: "I've voted Labour all my life." He added: "I wouldn't trust Boris with my kids' lunch money."

UK NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS


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For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.

The final week of campaigning could prove the trickiest for Conservatives, with activists suddenly having to answer questions about whether the prime minister really said he'd rather see "bodies pile high" than impose another lockdown and how he paid for a refurbishment of his Downing Street flat. One MP from a red wall seat observed with masterful understatement: "It's not all that helpful."

Labour door-knockers are allowing their hopes to rise in the final stretch, mobilizing their ground game more methodically than their rivals.

In spite of this, the Tories closest to the campaign sum up their strengths as lying in the "three Bs": Brexit, Boris and Ben. As Jacob Young, Conservative MP for nearby Redcar, said: "When I talk to people in my area, they say Boris hasn't been able to do everything he wants to do yet because of COVID and they want to see him given the chance."

The "Ben" in this equation is Ben Houchen, Conservative mayor of Tees Valley, who is closely associated with "wins" for the region such as the Treasury in Darlington and the freeport, as well as the addition of more flights from the local airport. 

Nicola Headlam, chief economist for Red Flag Alert business intelligence, a consultancy, and former head of the government's Northern Powerhouse unit, said it's not quite so simple. "Houchen made the link in the minds of the people in Tees that he would bang the drum for Treasury cash and be heard, but the hard-infrastructure-led approach at the core of the Conservatives' northern strategy won't touch the reality of actual deprivation."

"The airport money could have been better-spent shoving £50 notes into the pockets of residents of horrifically neglected areas." Nonetheless, it will be a shock if he doesn’t hold on to the mayoralty.

Win-Win

The same appears not to be true for the Tories’ Hartlepool candidate Jill Mortimer, with even party activists playing down her chances. The one voter who mentioned her spontaneously summed up her flaws with perfect disdain, referring to her as "the farmer from Thirsk." Mortimer and her campaign did not respond to interview requests.

Both her occupation and extraction are seen as too far removed from Hartlepool and, in a word, posh. One party colleague admitted "it would have been nice" to have a Hartlepudlian in the running, while another said there is an "experience gap" between Mortimer and her Labour rival.

The impression overall, however, is that Conservatives will not be too concerned about whether this candidate should have been chosen over that one, because they find themselves in a win-win situation.

If they take the seat, it gives Conservatives hope that their winning 2019 strategy can be replicated even without the galvanizing promise of "getting Brexit done." If they lose narrowly, they can claim it was always a tall order — which given the seat’s voting history, it was.

Another Teesside Tory said the attitude towards his party has changed "deeply" since he became involved in politics and "if anything, people would be more embarrassed about saying they vote Labour now."

If the noise is wrong and Labour can still hold its own in Hartlepool, commentators and politicians alike will have to grapple with the fact there's now such a thing as a shy Labour voter in the North East. If it loses, the true scale of the task facing Starmer is only now becoming apparent.
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