Monday, 12 April 2021

POLITICO

POLITICO

German CDU chiefs back Laschet’s bid for chancellor

Posted: 12 Apr 2021 04:38 AM PDT

BERLIN — Top officials from Germany’s governing Christian Democrats (CDU) on Monday backed party chief Armin Laschet’s bid to be the conservative candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor.

Laschet is in a standoff for the conservative camp’s nomination with Markus Söder, the leader of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. Both men declared Sunday they’re ready to run to replace Merkel in September’s general election, when the veteran chancellor plans to bow out.

Volker Bouffier, the CDU premier of the state of Hesse, said there was a broad majority in favor of Laschet’s bid at a meeting of the party’s executive committee on Monday morning, although no official decision was taken.

“We have expressed our clear support for our party leader and made it clear that we consider him to be exceptionally suitable,” Bouffier said.

Laschet, however, is under pressure from some CDU officials to step aside in favor of Söder, whose opinion poll ratings are much stronger. That pressure grew on Monday when the CDU branch in the state of Berlin said it supports Söder’s candidacy.

The Biden White House media doctrine: Less can be more

Posted: 12 Apr 2021 03:45 AM PDT

Three months in, Joe Biden's White House has settled on a firm press strategy: First, do no self-harm.

The president is not doing cable news interviews. Tweets from his account are limited and, when they come, unimaginably conventional. The public comments are largely scripted. Biden has opted for fewer sit down interviews with mainstream outlets and reporters. He's had just one major press conference — though another is coming — and prefers remarks straight to camera for the marquee moments. The White House is leaning more heavily on Cabinet officials to reach the audiences that didn't tune into his latest Rose Garden event.

It's the Hippocratic Oath for engagement with the fourth estate. And if it means criticism from the press and opponents about Biden's availability, so be it.

"Our communications strategy is based on innovation in the digital space, flooding the zone in regional and coalitions press, and effectively using traditional national media. He’s the president, he’s got a lot on his plate. We have people fanning out every single day across different media to amplify his message," deputy communications director Kate Berner told POLITICO. "We don't let his schedule be a limiting factor for us. We use the Cabinet, they’re experts in their field. They also have audiences that they can uniquely speak to."

During the campaign, the Biden team sold themselves as a return to calm. Their commitment to that pledge since taking office makes clear that itwasn't just a show for voters but an actual strategy. It is a head-spinning departure from four years of President Donald Trump, who was his own surrogate and aspiring assignment editor, tweeting changes to policy and taking the typically adversarial relationship with the press to a full-on war.

But Biden's approach is also markedly different from his former boss Barack Obama. In 2009, Obama became the first sitting president to appear on a late night talk show and at the end of his presidency, the administration began to explore new and innovative ways to reach beyond the White House press corps to get his message across.

Obama sat down for a "Between Two Ferns" interview with actor Zach Galifianakis in 2014 and did interviews with YouTube stars, including GloZell Green who, to that point, was best known for eating cereal out of the bathtub while sitting in it and choking on a ladle full of cinnamon.

Jennifer Palmieri, White House communications director at the time, said the shift in strategy came after a realization that any Sunday show or cable hit would get into a conversation about controversy and process rather than actual policy, at a time where Americans still thought Washington D.C. was about compromise. She argued that Biden doesn't have those same constraints, in large part because he is pushing a more easy-to-sell agenda.

"They don’t have the burden that the Obama team had of trying to convince people that a policy is going to make their lives better," Palmieri said. "Joe Biden is never going to fill the news vacuum that’s created by the departure of Donald Trump. But the administration writ large can do that."

Inside the White House, there is a belief that Biden can be used best as a marquee player coming in at big moments when there is a need to reset the press narrative or push a major policy. It hasn't always gone according to plan — on occasion, the White House has had to walk back or clarify comments Biden has made in the interviews he has given.

But as a strategy, it is a return to an era that predated the Obama White House, when the country heard from the president sparingly.

But it's also a continuation of the campaign strategy — especially during the general election — premised on the idea thattoo much exposure didn't necessarily work to his benefit. That mindset sparked criticism from the press as well as then-President Trump, who was doing daily press briefings on Covid-19 while his opponent was largely broadcasting from his home in Delaware. But Biden aides believed that simplicity and restraint was the best approach. He won the election.

"I don't think that we felt like what [Trump's team] did worked," a senior communications aide told POLITICO. "What [Trump] was doing as a strategy was not successful."

Robert Gibbs, Obama's first press secretary, says that the current media environment forces a balance for any White House staff. The American people want to see the president working. But overexposure carries risk — and not just in the form of increasing the chances for a notable gaffe.

"I used to have these discussions with President Obama; we were just laying too much of the communications work on top of him,” Gibbs said. "In reality, once you elevate it to the role of the president commenting on it, you can’t really go backwards. Like it’s now fully owned by them."

Gibbs said he was a bit envious of the Biden White House's use of surrogates who could take some of the burden and blowback from explaining the White House's policies.

The Biden Cabinet have quickly become press mainstays. This Sunday alone, Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on "Meet the Press," Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm hit "This Week" and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg pulled double duty on Fox News Sunday and State of the Union.

Biden's Cabinet has also taken on the task that Obama largely shouldered alone in going to unconventional media outlets to help reach alternate audiences. In March, HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge did an interview with The Shade Room, a pop culture site for a young, Black audience. She discussed the stimulus checks and specifically how unhoused individuals could make sure they got one. The administration sent Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key Covid-19 adviser to the president, to do a nearly 30 minute Instagram Live event with Eugenio Derbez, a Mexican actor and self-admitted "vaccine skeptic," where he answered questions about the efficacy and safety of the Covid-19 vaccines. The video has 1.2 million views and counting.

"There’s a media ecosystem in Washington that has to be respected, but if you solely rely on that to get your message out, that is a mistake," said Eric Schultz, former Obama principal deputy press secretary and current senior advisor to the president.

During the 2020 campaign, Biden's team was cognizant of not putting him in situations that weren't naturally comfortable. That didn't mean forfeiting the digital landscape. It meant not overusing the principal and finding new and creative ways to meet folks on the Internet. Rob Flaherty, the White House digital director, says when they were building out the plan, the first thing on their mind was they had to go beyond the press and find ways to be "in every single place, because online, people's media experiences are hyper-personalized and super-fractured."

The White House's social accounts are not stream-of-consciousness rants by the president. They're not terribly adventurous, either. They have largely consisted of edited clips of Biden's public remarks and weekly conversations where Biden answers questions from Americans on policy. The president's team has taken a pretty surefire bet: most Americans aren't hanging out on Twitter like the denizens of D.C. are.

"We get off of our platforms and go into the social feeds of people who will never watch CNN or read Vox but will and do trust various influencers and Instagram accounts and Facebook pages," Flaherty said. "When you do those things, you are actually getting into these sort of nooks and crannies of the Internet that the White House would not normally reach."

Democrats from the Obama years say they expect the Biden team will have to start using Biden himself in more unconventional ways once (and if) the country ever feels like it's not in the throes of one life-altering crisis after another. But one thing that doesn't seem likely to change: a return to any of the press drama from the Trump years, no matter how much right wing media hammers on "Basement Joe."

"We’re not interested in making everyone crazy on Twitter," Berner said. "We’re interested in driving the message that Americans around the country know what their government is doing for them and how their taxpayer dollars are being used and feel confident that there’s the administration."

Thousands sign petition calling for Charles Michel’s resignation over Sofagate

Posted: 12 Apr 2021 03:07 AM PDT

A petition calling for Charles Michel’s resignation has garnered over 5,000 signatures as of Monday morning, arguing the president of the European Council hurt the bloc’s diplomacy as well as women’s rights during the Sofagate incident and his subsequent apology.

The petition, signed by leaders of women’s groups like the Millennia2025 Women and Innovation Foundation and the International Law League of Women, states Michel has made “several serious mistakes that a pitiful apology cannot erase”.

The petition also ties the incident with Ankara’s decision on March 19 to leave the Istanbul Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence Against Women and Domestic Violence. “By ostensibly taking leadership as a man over a woman who is your political equal, you offer reinforcement to the dictator on the crush he wants to impose to women and girls of Turkey,” the letter reads.

Other first signatories include writers, a retired lawyer, and Belgian federal and regional MPs. The full list of signatories won’t be available until the petition closes at noon on Tuesday, after which it will be sent to Michel, with a copy also landing on von der Leyen’s desk.

The petition is the latest among the numerous and varied public responses to the awkward moment in Ankara on April 6, when the only two chairs in front of the Turkish and EU flags were quickly filled by Turkish President Erdoğan and Michel, leaving European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen standing before being directed to a nearby sofa. Michel first claimed he was not to blame for the episode, but later admitted he may have made a mistake.

Michel and von der Leyen will sit down this Monday afternoon for their weekly meeting — likely in chairs of similar size.

How the Istanbul Convention became a symbol of Europe’s cultural wars

Posted: 11 Apr 2021 07:34 PM PDT

It once seemed relatively uncontroversial: a 25-page document meant to reduce violence against women across Europe. 

But a decade later, the initiative, known as the Istanbul Convention, has unexpectedly become a proxy fight for the larger culture wars brewing between East and Western Europe. 

One by one, Eastern European countries are turning their back on the document, claiming it will erode their version of "family values." Turkey, which hosted the convention that produced the document, will withdraw from the convention on July 1. Poland has signaled it is questioning the agreement. Other European countries, like Hungary, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, signed the document, but haven't translated its provisions into law. 

The backlash centers on a semantic dispute that was not the main focus for the document's authors 10 years ago: how, exactly, to define "gender." To a crop of increasingly socially conservative European leaders, the document's definition is a surreptitious means to erode distinctions between men and women and "normalize" homosexuality. To the rest, the issue is not the definition, but what they see as a politically motivated interpretation spread using disinformation.

The division is a concerning development to many European officials and women's rights advocates, raising questions about the Continent's ability to effectively protect against gender-based violence and driving a further wedge between progressive and conservative forces in Europe. In the process, they warned, women's lives are being put at risk.

"This is not just against the Istanbul Convention, it is also an anti-European, and an anti-EU gesture," said Daniel Höltgen, spokesperson for the Council of Europe, the international organization of 47 European states that produced and oversees the convention. "It's traditionalists against progressives in Europe."

Höltgen added: "The convention is against violence against women and nothing else."

The convention, which came into force on August 1, 2014, was initially signed by the 45 Council of Europe member countries and the EU as a bloc. After that, Turkey was the first country to ratify the convention, and 21 EU countries followed. In 2017, the EU signed the document and started working to ratify it as a bloc. In total, 34 EU and non-EU countries have ratified the convention.

The document was intended to provide the bloc and other non-EU signatories with legally binding standards to "protect women against all forms of violence," including sexual harassment, stalking and forced marriage.

At the time of its drafting, the issue was less about gender than it was about the scope of violence, said Johanna Nelles, one of the document’s authors who also assisted the drafting committee in its negotiations.

"It was to what extent the convention should focus specifically against violence against women … or whether the scope of application extended to men and boys," said Nelles, who now leads the Council of Europe's efforts to get countries to implement the text.

Nelles said the document had to define gender since it was trying to address gender-based violence. The word appears 25 times in the text and is defined as "the socially constructed roles, behaviours, activities and attributes that a given society considers appropriate for women and men." Often, the word shows up as part of terms like "gender-based violence," "gendered understanding," "gender-sensitive" or "gender equality."

"Gender is the recognition that society subscribes us all certain roles, behaviors and activities that are considered appropriate for women and men," Nelles said, noting that "many" of these roles "contribute to the perpetration of violence."

Nelles admitted feeling surprised at the current outcry over the document in Eastern Europe, arguing the topic had been co-opted by "social movements, conservative think tanks [and] religious extremists who have a vision that doesn't comply with women’s rights."

Indeed, the convention has been swept up in disinformation campaigns and used as populist propaganda.

And opposition is growing across Eastern Europe. 

The EU as a whole has not ratified the text in part because six signatories — like Hungary, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic — haven't made the document's text legally binding. 

EU member Poland ratified the text in 2015, but is now questioning its content under the ruling conservative Law and Justice party. Its leaders are hung up, like others, on the document's use of the word "gender." Last month, the Polish parliament's lower house voted to submit a bill called "Yes to Family, No to Gender" to parliamentary committees for examination. 

The rejection has taken different forms elsewhere. 

In Hungary, parliament refused to ratify the Istanbul Convention in 2020 after Viktor Orbán's government described the measure as promoting "destructive gender ideologies" and "illegal migration,” according to news reports.

In Bulgaria, the constitutional court in 2018 ruled the convention unconstitutional. 

In Slovakia, lawmakers voted in 2019 against ratifying the convention.

But Turkey has grabbed the most attention in recent weeks after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pulled out of the convention by presidential decree. 

"The Istanbul Convention, originally intended to promote women's rights, was hijacked by a group of people attempting to normalize homosexuality — which is incompatible with Turkey's social and family values," his office said in a statement following the announcement of Turkey’s withdrawal.

The topic was top of mind for EU leaders when they traveled to Turkey this week to discuss migration and the customs union. European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took the opportunity to also confront Erdoğan about his decision. 

"I am deeply worried about the fact Turkey withdrew from the Istanbul Convention," von der Leyen told reporters at a press conference following her meeting with the Turkish leader. "This is about protecting women and children against violence. The EU will never hesitate to point out further negative actions."

Von der Leyen's comments reflected the growing fears in Brussels and at the Council of Europe's headquarters in Strasbourg that other skeptics could follow Turkey's lead and withdraw fully, further derailing the EU's effort to ratify the convention as a bloc — an endeavor that is already on the rocks. 

Council of Europe officials and gender equality experts argue the Istanbul Convention has nothing to do with homosexuality. In many countries, they note, the document has served as a model to better define gender-based violence, increase financing to support victims and set up help lines and shelters. Such efforts have been especially important during the pandemic, when domestic violence has surged.

"In Sweden, following the entry into force of the consent-based legislation on sexual violence, the number of prosecutions have gone up because many cases that used to be disqualified as rape can now be prosecuted," said Marceline Naudi, who chairs the Council of Europe's expert body that monitors the convention, during a recent online conference on the issue.

"This demonstrates both the transformative momentum created by the Istanbul Convention as much as the high degree of engagement among state parties," Naudi added.

Still, the EU is making alternate plans, sensing it may never be able to ratify the Istanbul Convention as a bloc. The European Commission recently announced it would launch a new legislative proposal to “combat gender-based violence” by the end of the year. The EU could then, potentially, adopt the new legally-binding text via qualified majority, avoiding the need for unanimous approval.

"The current ill-founded attack on the convention is putting women's and victims' lives at risk," Helena Dalli, the EU’s equality commissioner, told POLITICO. "Instead we must double down against violence and ensure that all member states have the best legislation to address this form of violence."

Europe deserves Erdoğan’s sofa

Posted: 11 Apr 2021 07:00 PM PDT

Matthew Karnitschnig is POLITICO's chief Europe correspondent.

A mustachioed Turk, two gilded high-back chairs and a plush sofa.

Turns out that's all it takes to conjure Europe's ever-elusive cohesion.

Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's quarantining of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to his receiving room sofa in Ankara last week united the fractious Continent — in outrage. 

Amid the gaudy décor of Erdoğan's fake sultan's palace, the choreography evoked an absurdist painting: at the center of the action, the Turkish president, with his trademark man-spread on full display seated next to a jittery Charles Michel, the president of the European Council; across the room, perched upright on a sofa, von der Leyen in a neat red blazer, a picture of the well-bred German Frau, hands neatly clasped in her lap, in silent defiance.

The image absolutely enraged Europeans, left, right and center. Iratxe García Pérez, leader of the Socialists & Democrats group in the European Parliament, called von der Leyen’s treatment “shameful.” Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, a man famous for his temperate tone, made no effort to disguise his anger over what he described as von der Leyen's "humiliation," comparing Erdoğan on Thursday to a "dictator."

All because of a sofa? 

Not exactly.

If Europe itself were on the couch, the sofa might represent something else: the sum of the region's insecurities, resentments and, above all, the depth of its inferiority complex.

Contrary to the prevailing European perception, the episode wasn't chiefly about disrespect of women, but power. The European Union, through its shiny buildings and the grand titles of its various "presidents," tries hard to project power. A bit too hard, in fact. And people with real power, like Erdoğan, not only see right through the fakery, they revel in putting the Europeans in their place — on a sofa, if need be. 

Angela Merkel has never been banished to Erdoğan’s sofa. Why? Because Erdoğan takes her and her power seriously. Given that neither Michel nor von der Leyen (their titles notwithstanding) have much power, humiliating them is all the more tempting for someone like Erdoğan. It goes down well with his base and carries zero downside risk. What’s the EU going to do about it?

Not even Michel and von der Leyen seem to know. Since the incident, they’ve been too busy pointing fingers at one another and their aides for the “protocol” mishap.

In his effort to claim innocence, Michel, a former Belgian prime minister, appears to have gone through the five stages of grief and back again. Mainly, he is just “saddened,” Michel confessed in a Facebook post last week. But what he seems most upset about is that he got caught on live TV acting like a chauvinist cad by not offering von der Leyen his seat.

The rivalry in Brussels between Michel and von der Leyen is no secret. And judging by the Commission’s response, von der Leyen has enjoyed every minute of Sofagate. Her staff milked the perceived slight in Ankara for everything it was worth. Less than 24 hours after the episode, von der Leyen’s aides had already delivered detailed reports on how MEPs and the public were reacting.

“Overall, PEC and Erdogan are blamed for their attitude – clear support to the President with new hashtags like #WeWantOurSeat or #GiveHerASeat,” read one internal analysis viewed by POLITICO (PEC refers to the president of the European Council, Michel).

It's telling that the real purpose of the EU leaders' mission to Ankara has been drowned out by the collective indignation over the seating arrangements. But then, few in Europe like to be reminded of the degree to which they rely on Turkey to keep the huddled masses from the Middle East and Africa at bay. Nor do they want to be reminded that the arrangement involves billions in cold, hard cash. 

It's less jarring to, as Germany's public TV broadcaster did in its report on the visit, highlight Erdoğan's absence from the post-meeting press conference, where von der Leyen and Michel spoke to the sanctity of human rights and the Istanbul Convention (so what if few Europeans had ever even heard of the accord until Erdoğan’s recent decision to withdraw from it).

Never mind that Turkey has taken in millions more refugees than wealthy Europe.

The European reaction is typical of people plagued by feeling inadequate and powerless. Instead of acknowledging Europe’s continued reliance on Turkey to keep migrants off the Continent and the questionable concessions the EU has made to keep that arrangement alive, they focus on style, manners — and especially their particular definition of "morality." 

For even if Europe fails at the power game, it is in a class of its own when it comes to projecting moral superiority. 

Only a cynic would suggest the EU’s engagement with Turkey was about paying it off to keep hosting refugees, Brussels’ argument goes. The real mission was human rights, and, in particular, women’s rights. The Istanbul Convention! What more is there to say?

Erdoğan is the perfect foil for Europe’s morality patrol. He's uncouth, a populist-cum-dictator and, most important — though never to be mentioned or acknowledged — a Muslim. 

Europeans may buttress their outrage over Erdoğan's treatment of von der Leyen with the vocabulary of feminism, but the subtext is unmistakable to anyone familiar with the anti-Islamic strain that pervades European society. To many European eyes, Erdoğan didn't just treat von der Leyen with disrespect by sticking her on the sofa, rather he handled her like "they" do all women.

One could almost hear the collective sigh in the reaction to the video from Ankara: How lucky we are to be European.

That’s why, instead of attacking Erdoğan, Europeans should be thanking him.

He didn’t just reunite Europe’s tribes for a few days, he helped them feel like real Europeans again.

Battle on for German conservatives as Bavarian leader enters race for chancellor

Posted: 11 Apr 2021 09:06 AM PDT

Germany's governing conservative bloc is heading for a showdown to choose a candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor, as the leaders of both the CDU and CSU parties announced their willingness to run Sunday.

“I’m ready for this candidacy,” Bavarian premier Markus Söder told reporters following a meeting of the executive committee of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which Söder leads.

Speaking at the same press conference, CDU leader Armin Laschet also announced his “willingness to run for chancellor.” He added that both politicians had agreed their parties would decide “very quickly and very promptly” who would be the final candidate. “Our goal is … to achieve as much unity as possible between the CDU and CSU, because there is a lot at stake,” Laschet said. “Europe is watching how Germany develops. The world expects a stable Germany.”

While Söder can count on the backing of his CSU, a lot now depends on whether the CDU throws its weight behind Laschet, who took over as party leader in January and has since suffered from poor popularity ratings. Some may decide to back the Bavarian who enjoys much higher popularity among voters.

Söder acknowledged that the final decision lies with the CDU: “If [my candidacy] is what the party, the parliamentary group and the members want, then it’s clear to me that I can’t back down but must face up to my responsibilities,” he said. “But it’s also clear that if the bigger sister [party] says that this is not her proposal, that she has another proposal … then I would also accept that. We don’t want a split, we want unity.”

The CDU/CSU alliance is facing internal pressure to decide swiftly on a lead candidate for the September 26 election as its poll ratings plummet and the second-placed Green party is set to pick its lead candidate on April 19. Merkel has said she won't run again in the election.

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Support for the CDU/CSU has fallen in opinion polls from 36 percent in January to 27 percent, while the Greens improved their rating from 19 percent to 22 percent over this same time frame.

A decision could come as early as Monday, when the CDU leadership meets. Recent polls suggest that Söder has a good chance to win support from his sister party: A survey by broadcasters RTL and NTV last week suggested that 38 percent of Germans would vote for him as chancellor, ahead of the Greens and the Social Democratic Party, while Laschet would only get 17 percent, risking a CDU/CSU slump to second or even third place in September’s vote.

Another poll by public broadcaster WDR on Sunday showed that even on Laschet’s home turf in North Rhine-Westphalia, where he governs as premier, his popularity ratings collapsed by a staggering 34 percentage points since January to only 26 percent.

In an apparent swipe at Laschet, Söder stressed that “the candidate for chancellor should be the one who has the best chance of being elected.”

In an interview with the BILD am Sonntag weekly published earlier on Sunday, Laschet downplayed his poor popularity ratings and said he had succeeded in bringing the party together since winning the party leadership in January and was "getting a lot of support."

Laschet also said he stood for continuity with Merkel's political objectives: "I have been in agreement with the chancellor for years on basic policy issues — from the euro rescue to refugee policy. Even when the conflict with the CSU escalated two years ago over a European refugee policy. Such a rift must never be repeated."

Those comments were targeted against Söder, who repeatedly rebelled against Merkel's refugee policy and played a key role in an escalating political fight in June 2018 that threatened to bring the government down.

Speaking about the battle against the coronavirus pandemic, another divisive issue in German politics, Laschet advocated an early halt to age prioritization for vaccination, once the most elderly and vulnerable have received the jab, to allow all interested adults to book an appointment.

"When the big amounts of vaccines come in at the end of the spring, vaccination priorities should drop and vaccination should be opened to everyone," he said. "That would be an important building block in building the bridge to a summer with a lot more freedom."

Blinken warns China, Russia about military action

Posted: 11 Apr 2021 06:39 AM PDT

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday said “it would be serious mistake” for China to strike at Taiwan and expressed “real concerns” about Russia’s massing of forces on the border with Ukraine.

In addressing concerns about America’s two great Cold War rivals, Blinken stopped short of promising U.S. military intervention — “I’m not going to get into hypotheticals” — but did vow there would be “consequences.”

Speaking to host Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Blinken said of Chinese belligerence toward Taiwan, “We have a commitment to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, a bipartisan commitment that’s existed for many, many years, to make sure that Taiwan has the ability to defend itself, and to make sure that we’re sustaining peace and security in the Western Pacific. We stand behind those commitments.

“And all I can tell you is it would be a serious mistake for anyone to try to change the existing status quo by force,” he said.

China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory, something that has been the case since Mao’s revolution took over China in 1949 and the remnants of the old regime fled to Taiwan, where they and their successors have been a thorn in China’s side for decades.

A similar dynamic has existed between Russia and Ukraine in recent years. Ukraine became an independent nation in the 1990s after the Soviet Union was dissolved. Vladimir Putin’s Russian government seized the region of Crimea in 2014, and there has fighting along the border for years now.

“As we speak right now,” Blinken told Todd, “I have to tell you I have real concerns about Russia’s actions on the borders of Ukraine. There are more Russian forces massed on those borders than at any time since 2014 when Russia first invaded. That’s why we’re in very close contact, in close coordination, with our allies and partners in Europe.”

He added: “President Biden’s been very clear about this. If Russia acts recklessly, or aggressively, there will be costs, there will be consequences.”

In the wide-ranging interview Blinken also said he expects the United States “to be the world leader on helping to make sure that the entire world gets vaccinated.”

Blinken said there would be costs to America if the world is not fully vaccinated for Covid.

“Unless and until the vast majority of people in the world are vaccinated, it’s still going to be a problem for us,” he said. “Because as long as the virus is replicating somewhere, it could be mutating, and then it could be coming back to hit us.”

Trudeau government threatens Halifax Security Forum over proposed Taiwan award

Posted: 11 Apr 2021 05:58 AM PDT

The organizers of one of the world's most prestigious defense gatherings are in the midst of an uncomfortable international standoff between the Canadian government and China over a major award they had planned to give to the president of Taiwan.

The standstill, which is ongoing and has not been previously reported, has created tension between the Halifax International Security Forum and the Canadian government, which is a major sponsor of the forum.

Late last year, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter, the forum's organizers decided to give its John McCain Prize for Leadership in Public Service to Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan. Cindy McCain, a member of the forum's board of directors, greenlit the decision to honor Tsai with the prize named after her late husband.

It would have been the third time the HFX presented the McCain award. The first, in 2018, went to the people of Lesbos, Greece, for their efforts to save refugees; the second, in 2019, went to the citizen protesters in Hong Kong. HFX planned to give the third to Taiwan's president for standing strong against China's relentless pressure.

When Canadian officials learned of the forum's plans, they made it clear that if organizers gave the honor to Tsai, the Canadian government would pull support — and funding — from HFX.

HFX hasn't decided how to proceed. For now, the situation appears to be on ice.

"HFX has not yet announced the winner of the 2020 John McCain Prize for leadership in public service," said the forum's Vice President Robin Shepherd in a statement. "We look forward to making the announcement, and conducting a presentation event at an appropriate time, given the challenges that the Covid-19 pandemic presents. President Tsai of Taiwan is a well respected international leader, the first female president of Taiwan, and a strong global advocate for democracy. She would certainly be an ideal fit for this award. At this time, we have no further announcements to make."

The McCain Institute, where Cindy McCain is chair of the board of trustees, did not respond to requests for comment.

POLITICO is a media partner of the event but is not involved in decisions about the prize. POLITICO employees handling its role with HFX did not participate in this story.

The Halifax forum, also sponsored by NATO, draws scores of powerful military and civilian leaders. Previous speakers have included then-U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel; Adm. Phil Davidson, the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Canadian Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan; and officials from a host of other countries, including Israel, Estonia, Afghanistan, Yemen, Poland and Japan.

The forum's website states it is "devoted to strengthening strategic cooperation among democratic nations." It also purports to take a critical stance toward Beijing's autocratic expansionism, and last year released a publication called "The HFX Handbook for Democracies," which highlights "the serious challenge that China poses." HFX promises donors that their contributions to the forum will strengthen their governments' "resolve to stand up to China."

Now the question is whether the forum itself will buck the Canadian government and honor one of Beijing's top targets.

Trudeau's government appears uncomfortable with the situation. Ottawa has shied away from provoking Beijing after tensions spiked in December 2018, when Canadian authorities arrested a senior Huawei executive on behalf of the U.S. In an apparent retaliation, China arrested two Canadians just days later and has since charged them with espionage.

A spokesperson for Sajjan, Canada's defence minister, would not confirm or deny whether the Trudeau government threatened to pull out of the forum over the organizers' plan to present the award to Tsai.

"The Government of Canada has provided financial support through a contribution agreement with the Halifax International Security Forum," Sajjan's spokesperson Todd Lane wrote in an email to POLITICO. "While financial support has been provided, the Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces are not involved in the planning of the Forum. The organizers reach out to us, as well as many other organizations, for panelists on various topics and we try to support when appropriate."

Sajjan is scheduled to testify Monday evening before a special parliamentary committee on Canada-China relations.

Officials from Taiwan's missions in Washington and Ottawa declined to comment.

Ottawa's relationship with Beijing in a parlous state

In recent months, the Chinese government has targeted Taiwan with a hybrid warfare campaign, including election interference, cyberattacks and drone intrusions into its airspace. The unstinting barrage has battered the country's economy and sparked fears of a full-scale invasion. Meanwhile, under Tsai's leadership, only 10 of Taiwan's nearly 24 million people have died of Covid-19. In January 2020, she won a landslide reelection victory against a rival who wanted closer ties with Beijing.

Beijing does not recognize Taiwan's independence, and has long sought control of the dynamic island democracy. The Communist government has worked to undermine international recognition of Taiwan, using its clout to pressure companies and institutions to change maps depicting it as an independent country.

The U.S. maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan, and on Friday the State Department released guidelines allowing closer interaction between U.S. diplomats and those from Taiwan, as Reuters detailed. Much like the United States, Canada's "One China" policy means Ottawa doesn't recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state, nor does it maintain official relations with Taiwanese government.

Honoring Taiwan's president at such a high-profile conference in Canada would likely irk Beijing — especially as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tries to secure the release of the two Canadians imprisoned in China.

Canada-China diplomatic relations plunged after the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou at Vancouver's airport in December 2018. Beijing has called the move political and demanded her release. Meng's father founded Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant. The U.S. Department of Justice last year charged Huawei with violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act — charges most commonly associated with organized crime — for fraud in service of evading U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Days after Meng's arrest, Chinese authorities rounded up Kovrig and Spavor, known colloquially as the "two Michaels." China also halted some key agricultural imports from Canada.

Kovrig and Spavor were tried last month in separate, one-day proceedings, each behind closed doors. Canadian diplomats and media were barred from entering the courthouses for both hearings. The men are now awaiting the verdicts and, if convicted, their sentences.

Trudeau has called the Canadians' arrests arbitrary, claiming "trumped-up" charges.

It isn't the first time Beijing has arrested Canadian citizens in apparent retaliation for Ottawa's compliance with its treaty obligations. In 2014, Canadians arrested a Chinese national named Su Bin, who had been indicted in the U.S. for working to steal the plans for the American C-17 military transport plane and F-35 fighter jet. After his arrest, the Chinese government arrested Kevin and Julia Garratt, two Christian aid workers living there. A lawyer for the Garratt family told The New York Times that Beijing made it clear their arrest was designed to pressure Ottawa not to extradite Su Bin. Su Bin later waived extradition, pleaded guilty, and served a brief prison sentence in the U.S. The Garratts are now free.

China is a political problem for Trudeau

While fighting for the two Michaels' freedom has become a top foreign policy matter for Trudeau, the prime minister has faced criticism for being too soft on China.

The Conservatives' Erin O'Toole, Canada's official opposition leader, has frequently tried to frame Trudeau as too cozy with China and challenged the prime minister to stand up to Beijing.

"It's disappointing but not surprising to see the extent to which the Trudeau government will go to secretly support the Communist Party of China," O'Toole wrote in an email Friday to POLITICO when asked about the Trudeau government's ultimatum to the Halifax forum on Tsai. "It begs the question of what else this government is doing in secret to support their friends in China that we don't know about."

Trudeau has tried to rally Western leaders — including President Joe Biden — to press China for the release of Kovrig and Spavor. "Human beings are not bartering chips," Biden said in February following his virtual meeting with Trudeau. "We're going to work together until we get their safe return."

Since the arrests of Kovrig and Spavor, however, Trudeau has at times appeared reluctant to take steps that might anger China. Canada remains the only member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance yet to announce a decision whether to restrict Huawei from its 5G network.

In February, Canada's Parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of a motion declaring Beijing’s mistreatment of Uyghur Muslims a genocide. Trudeau himself and his 36 cabinet ministers abstained from voting on the symbolic motion.

But in other areas, Canada has moved forward multilaterally. The Trudeau government recently joined allies in imposing sanctions on individuals and entities allegedly linked to human rights abuses against Uyghurs in China, including mass internment in concentration camps and reports of forced sterilization of women. It has also called for Beijing to provide independent investigators "unfettered access" to the region.

The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa did not respond to requests for comment.

Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee's top Republican, released a statement praising Tsai in response to this reporting.

"No world leader is more deserving of the recognition than President Tsai Ing-wen," he said. "President Tsai has stood firm against Beijing’s international bullying without undermining the status quo that has kept the peace for decades. Democracies worldwide should refuse to let Beijing dictate how we interact with Taiwan."
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