Liberty Street Economics: Reasonable Seasonals? Seasonal Echoes in Economic Data after COVID-19

F E D E R A L   R E S E R V E   B A N K   o f   N E W  Y O R K LIBERTY STREET ECONOMICS   Reasonable Seasonals? Seasonal Echoes in Economic Data after COVID-19   David Lucca and Jonathan Wright Seasonal adjustment is a key statistical procedure underlying the creation of many economic series. Large economic shocks, such as the 2007-09 downturn, can generate lasting seasonal echoes in subsequent data. The authors discuss the prospects for this echo effect after last year's sharp economic contraction due to COVID-19 by focusing on the payroll employment series published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.   READ MORE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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